Iran has presented a proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, facilitated by Qatar passing messages between the two nations at the UN General Assembly in New York.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Thursday that the timeline could commence as soon as Washington accepts the proposal.
Both sides have characterized the indirect contact positively, yet neither has signaled a diplomatic breakthrough as the conflict approaches its seventh month.
Analysts tell Al Jazeera that a comprehensive peace deal remains unlikely, as Iran seeks to follow the framework of an earlier agreement, which would grant Iran and Oman a primary role in managing the strait before addressing broader peace terms.
The United States, claiming “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, insists that Iran’s nuclear program be discussed immediately.
Iran has consistently stated it will not engage in broader peace negotiations, including discussions on its nuclear program, until the US naval blockade of its ports is lifted, sanctions are repealed, and guarantees are provided to halt strikes.
What has Iran proposed?
Araghchi informed reporters in New York that Iran conveyed its plan to the US through intermediaries. “If certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz would be open by the end of the seventh day and talks would resume,” he stated.
He provided no specifics but noted the proposal resembles the June 17 memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by both countries, which briefly eased tensions before collapsing. “The moment they accept this plan, from the next day, this timetable can start, and after seven days, the strait will be open,” he said.
Under the June agreement, Iran agreed to allow ships to transit the strait without tolls for 60 days—the designated period for peace talks. However, the MoU left unresolved what would occur afterward.
Araghchi did not clarify if the same arrangement is part of his new proposal, nor did he specify what Washington must do before the seven-day clock starts, how compliance would be verified, or what regulations would govern shipping once the strait reopens.
Analysts say it is highly improbable that Iran would relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Urban Coningham, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Al Jazeera that Tehran is unlikely to receive the sanction relief it previously demanded and therefore views the strait as its primary economic lifeline to recover from the war.
“Hormuz is a clear Iranian red line,” he told Al Jazeera. “The Iranians will not get reparations for the war, so control of the strait is the only way they can recover economically. I cannot see them backing down from that.”
![[Al Jazeera]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==)
Why does the June agreement matter?
The June MoU established an immediate cessation of military operations across all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israel has conducted strikes and occupied territory, and initiated a 60-day negotiation period for a lasting peace settlement. It included US waivers for Iranian oil exports and provisions to restore maritime traffic through the strait.
It deferred other issues, such as the future of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, to broader peace talks.
However, the agreement collapsed the following month amid renewed tensions over shipping routes through the strait.
Coningham told Al Jazeera that Iran’s latest proposal follows this earlier model: “Open the strait within seven days, then start talks on the nuclear file.”
However, “the US does not want to compartmentalise the issues, it wants them discussed as one package,” he said.
How else does this new proposal place pressure on the US?
Coningham also sees a political calculation in making the offer publicly at the UN as Americans face high fuel prices. “By explicitly saying this may be the only chance before the midterms, Iran is putting pressure on Trump over oil and gas prices and the strait,” he said. “It is a tactic to put more pressure on the US.”
The strait, situated between Iran and Oman, is a crucial route for Gulf oil and gas exports. Disruption to shipping has driven up energy prices globally, giving both governments an economic incentive to reach an agreement despite their differences.
With US midterm elections approaching, a deal to reopen the strait could allow Trump to lower fuel prices before voters head to the polls—potentially providing the Republican Party with a needed electoral boost.
Trump has framed the electoral calculation differently, however. In his address to the General Assembly on Tuesday, he accused Iran of waiting to see how his Republican Party performs in November and predicted a deal would happen after the vote. He also threatened to “annihilate the Islamic Republic” if no agreement was reached.
Trump claimed the election did not affect his own decision-making on Iran: “The only thing that does is that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
This leaves an open question about whether the prospect of lower energy prices is enough to persuade his administration to accept Iran’s proposed order of talks. Coningham doubts it. “Trump is prepared for this to go on through the midterms,” he said. “The same problem remains where the proposal does not answer questions about the nuclear file.”
Where do broader US-Iran peace talks stand?
Araghchi met US envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Tuesday in talks mediated by Qatar. The Iranian foreign minister described the exchange as productive and said messages continued to pass between the sides.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it would be wrong to describe the meeting as a major breakthrough.
Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East security, told Al Jazeera that the major blockage for Washington and Tehran is that each is making different assumptions about how much pressure they can exert on the other. The Trump administration is unlikely to revive the failed MoU, she said, because it assesses its naval blockade and tighter sanctions as working.
“The US appears to believe it can wait this out until Tehran is prepared to make meaningful concessions,” Ozcelik said.
“But Iran remains defiant despite indications that it is hurting economically.”
