The Strategic Appeal of the European Union: Why Iceland and Others Are Seeking Entry

If Icelandic voters choose on Saturday to resume negotiations for European Union membership, they will join a growing roster of nations seeking entry into the bloc.

The desire for membership is driven by diverse strategic needs: Ukraine views the EU as a vital security shield against Russian aggression, while Moldova, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, and North Macedonia all seek the stability and economic integration the union provides. The appeal is so broad that European officials have even joked about the hypothetical addition of Canada.

Despite the high-profile departure of the United Kingdom in 2020, interest in the bureaucratic center of Brussels remains high. This resurgence is largely fueled by a volatile global landscape characterized by Russian hostility, economic competition from China, and political unpredictability in Washington.

“When the U.K. left the union, there was a moment of apprehension regarding a potential domino effect,” noted Almut Möller, head of the Europe in the World program at the European Policy Center think tank. However, she suggests that in an era of renewed great-power competition, aligning with a community of like-minded nations is now seen as having “great value.”

While Iceland’s upcoming vote is a significant indicator, it does not settle the debate over the EU’s attractiveness. Critics globally continue to target the union’s sprawling regulatory framework, and within Iceland, the population remains deeply divided over whether to restart talks.

Ultimately, the EU offers prospective members the advantage of collective strength in an era of realpolitik. Magnus Arni Skjold Magnusson, chairman of the European Movement in Iceland, frames the decision as a choice of values, particularly as the U.S. retreats from international treaties and faces internal political instability.

“Do we want to lean toward a country that may not share our values on democracy, equality, and gay rights?” Dr. Magnusson asked. “Or do we want to align ourselves with like-minded nations?”

It is important to note that Saturday’s referendum is not a final vote on membership, but rather a mandate to resume negotiations after a decade-long hiatus. Iceland originally pursued membership following the 2008 financial crisis but halted the process due to industry pushback and difficult negotiations.

Iceland already maintains tight bonds with the bloc as a member of the Schengen Area, facilitating borderless travel. Full membership could also allow Iceland to adopt the euro, which many citizens view as a symbol of monetary stability.

The timing of the vote is critical, coinciding with increased Russian activity in the Arctic and recent erratic commentary from U.S. leadership regarding the annexation of Greenland—during which Iceland was repeatedly confused with its neighbor.

“It feels like our neighborhood is being threatened,” said Edda Kentish, a 42-year-old copywriter intending to vote in favor of restarting talks.

However, membership carries risks. The fishing industry warns of heightened competition, and skeptics fear a loss of national sovereignty or the dilution of Iceland’s voice within a massive bloc. With a population under 400,000, Iceland would be the EU’s smallest member—dwarfed by Germany, whose population is roughly 200 times larger.

Haraldur Olafsson, a prominent opponent of membership, argues that EU laws are designed for the interests of France and Germany and would impose unnecessary regulations and costs on Iceland.

Expanding the union is a slow and arduous process. Brussels deliberately paces negotiations to ensure candidates meet strict standards. For example, Montenegro and Albania have been candidates since 2008 and 2009, respectively, while Turkey’s bid has stalled for decades due to a failure to meet EU benchmarks.

Moreover, integrating poorer nations requires significant financial investment from existing members and can introduce economic volatility into the shared market. Furthermore, the rise of governments with divergent values can hinder the EU’s collective decision-making process.

Despite these hurdles, Iceland’s high income, political stability, and existing ties make it a strong candidate. Marta Kos, the EU commissioner for enlargement, suggested that negotiations could be finalized within one to two years.

“I think this is a great time for Iceland to join because of the geopolitical situation we’re in,” Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir recently stated on the “The Rest Is Politics: Leading” podcast, noting that the EU’s strategic desire to tighten its alliances could give Iceland a stronger hand at the negotiating table.

“They’re looking strategically around,” she added. “They’re aware the world is changing.”

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