The US-Venezuela Oil Deal: Geopolitics, Challenges, and Political Transition

For over a century, Venezuelan politics have been inextricably linked to the management and distribution of the nation’s vast oil wealth. The central policy debate has long oscillated between liberalizing the hydrocarbon sector and nationalizing its resources, with state control dominating the national agenda for the past 27 years. Over this period, a strong sense of “resource nationalism” has been cultivated by the ruling party, leveraging oil revenues to consolidate domestic power and project political influence throughout the region, especially among Caribbean nations.

This longstanding dynamic was upended on January 3, 2026, when United States special forces conducted a lightning raid in Caracas, abducting President Nicolas Maduro and transporting him to the United States to face charges related to drug trafficking and firearms. In the months since, Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s deputy and the current interim president, has pursued the privatization of the state-owned oil industry, aligning the sector with US strategic and economic interests.

Key legislative milestones achieved over the past eight months include the reform of the General Hydrocarbons Law, the liberalization of energy power generation, and the issuance of operational permits. These permits, subject to prior US authorization, allow American and other approved international oil companies—excluding entities from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—to explore and extract crude from Venezuela’s extensive oil fields.

The culmination of these efforts occurred last week, when the United States and Venezuela announced a landmark agreement granting American energy corporations access to 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan crude oil reserves over a 100-year period. Described by former President Trump as the “biggest oil deal in world history,” this pact represents a fundamental shift away from decades of resource nationalism and marks the peak of Washington’s strategy to secure dominance over Venezuela’s energy reserves. Furthermore, this agreement is poised to play a decisive role in shaping the country’s political transition.

Since the removal of Maduro in January, the US government has implemented a structured, three-phase strategy focused on stabilization, economic recovery, and political reform. To successfully navigate this transition, all relevant parties must establish a clear roadmap for implementing the oil agreement while simultaneously ensuring that legitimate presidential elections are convened. The signing of this monumental oil deal serves as the starting gun for this highly complex process.

A Win for the US – Not So Much for Venezuela

The precise terms of this historic oil agreement have been the subject of intense debate across specialized media outlets in the Western Hemisphere and globally this week. Due to conflicting and sometimes contradictory statements released by US and Venezuelan authorities, the final conditions of the deal remain somewhat ambiguous.

The Trump Administration has provided the most detailed account, confirming the transfer of 65 billion barrels of crude oil—representing 20 percent of Venezuela’s proven 303 billion barrels of reserves—to US control for a century. These reserves are spread across 17 major oil fields, several of which were previously under concession to Chinese and Russian state-owned enterprises. The extraction operations will be managed by a private entity named North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), in collaboration with the US Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC). Under the agreement, the OSC will acquire a 35 percent stake in NABEP at no cost, a detail Trump has cited to argue that the initiative will not burden American taxpayers.

According to official US government disclosures, Washington has also secured the right to purchase 20 percent of all current and future crude oil production from the NABEP-operated fields at the cost of production. This provision effectively exempts the extracted oil from Venezuelan taxation, significantly diminishing the fiscal revenues that the interim government would otherwise collect. Furthermore, the OSC retains the right of first refusal on the remaining 80 percent of production, or the power of veto if supply is deemed necessary for US national security or to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). These clauses are clearly designed to secure American energy independence and bolster national security objectives.

The White House has confirmed that NABEP is exclusively controlled by American citizens, a restriction designed to prevent foreign entities from managing the operations. In practice, this stipulation ensures direct US oversight of the extraction process, with NABEP serving primarily as a corporate vehicle for federal dominance. Additionally, top officials from both nations estimate that exploiting these 17 oil fields will generate approximately $200 billion in tax revenues over time, based on an anticipated $100 billion investment. This revenue is intended to be managed by the current interim authorities to address the severe challenges of national reconstruction following years of economic crisis.

However, the exact methodology for calculating this projected revenue remains unclear. The discretionary clauses granted to the US government make it impossible to independently verify the precise tax obligations. Furthermore, the Venezuelan government has announced that the concession granted to NABEP will be valid for only 25 years—a figure significantly lower than the 100-year duration asserted by the US government. Notably, this type of long-term concession has not been utilized in Venezuelan hydrocarbon legislation for half a century.

Too Many Obstacles?

While the bilateral agreement has the potential to attract crucial foreign capital to the Venezuelan oil sector, its successful implementation faces multiple internal and external political, legal, and economic hurdles. First, the Trump Administration has struggled to incentivize major American energy corporations—aside from Chevron—to establish a significant presence in the Venezuelan oil market. This reluctance stems from a perceived lack of trustworthy and legitimate domestic institutions, which translates to an unstable legal framework incapable of supporting long-term production planning.

Excluding industry giants such as Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, the only prospective partners for the 17 oil fields appear to be small, independent operators. This shift could lead to significant operational setbacks, as only the major corporations possess the financial capital and technological expertise required to execute large-scale, multi-decade investments in such ambitious ventures. The oil majors’ hesitation is also a direct consequence of the absence of a universally recognized government and the continued dominance of the ruling party over the nation’s core institutions.

One of the most critical concerns surrounding the oil deal is the potential for a future, democratically elected government to denounce or refuse to recognize the agreement on constitutional grounds. Additionally, if the current ruling party perceives an opportunity to challenge US dominance, it could reject the terms of the deal entirely. Beyond these rule-of-law concerns, the leadership of NABEP presents another major red flag. Despite attempts by the Department of State to sanitize his background, Alejandro Betancourt, the head of NABEP’s operations, has a highly controversial record. He faces multiple historical corruption cases, including allegations of bribery, cost overruns, and influence peddling in state-owned PDVSA energy projects.

It is also vital to recognize that achieving a genuine, feasible increase in Venezuelan oil production will likely require several years, even under the most favorable conditions. This reality directly contradicts the optimistic rhetoric of senior Trump administration officials, who claim the deal will immediately boost local output. Achieving such rapid acceleration would require substantial capital investment, much of which is currently unguaranteed.

A ‘Hemispheric’ Strategy

Approval of the oil deal is an integral component of a broader “hemispheric” strategy adopted by the US government to reclaim influence across the Americas. This strategy, outlined in the Trump administration’s 2025 National Security Strategy and subsequent foreign policy directives, designates the Western Hemisphere as a primary zone of strategic influence. Within this framework, Venezuela is viewed as a critical geopolitical pivot due to its vast energy reserves and its geographic proximity to US territory.

Consequently, the US government considers securing control over Venezuela’s oil reserves a core matter of national security, directly linked to the maintenance of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This stance is particularly evident as Washington actively prevents geopolitical adversaries—specifically China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—from participating in the Venezuelan energy sector. Furthermore, the US government is leveraging its existing economic, military, and political tools to discourage other nations from engaging in business with its declared adversaries or participating in critical infrastructure projects across the region.

Venezuela’s Political Transition

Since the removal of Maduro from power in January, the US government has initiated its three-phase plan to promote stabilization, economic recovery, and political reform in Venezuela. The ultimate goal of this initiative is to facilitate free and democratic elections, serving as the foundational step toward legitimizing the country’s governance structures and reintegrating it into the international community.

Prior to the announcement of this week’s oil agreement, various opposition leaders were actively developing strategies to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. These figures viewed the electoral process as the primary mechanism for reclaiming national sovereignty and establishing a long-term, mutually beneficial partnership with the United States centered on the oil industry.

However, the trajectory of Trump’s administration’s policy has diverged, prioritizing the immediate securing of access to and control over Venezuela’s oil reservoirs before initiating any democratic transition. While top US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have recently asserted that the oil deal is separate from the broader transition plan, the reality is that Washington has made it clear that no future Venezuelan government will be permitted to alter the terms of this agreement.

Given the current political landscape, while most domestic political factions support an oil agreement that emphasizes US participation, prominent opposition figures like Maria Corina Machado—the country’s leading political figure—have expressed deep concern regarding interim leader Delcy Rodriguez signing the deal. Rodriguez lacks democratic legitimacy, raising the risk that the agreement could be invalidated by a future representative government. Although Machado has not explicitly guaranteed that a future democratic administration would reject the deal, her stance highlights the growing concern that Trump’s administration may be motivated to maintain the status quo and keep Rodriguez in power rather than facilitating free elections to ensure the agreement’s stability.

These concerns have been amplified in recent days following public statements by the US president suggesting that Venezuela is not yet prepared for immediate elections.

Ultimately, the long-term efficacy of the oil deal and its impact on Venezuela’s political transition will depend on the complex alignment of internal and external political, legal, and economic factors. For the time being, the US government retains decisive authority over the nation’s trajectory, occurring to the detriment of the Venezuelan population’s right to self-determination.

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