This Warren Buffett Stock Is Up 58%. History Says This Is What Happens Next.

DaVita Surges 58% Year‑Over‑Year—What Historical Patterns Warn of the Path Ahead

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKB), led by billionaire investor Warren Buffett, controls roughly 28 million shares of DaVita (NYSE: DVA), valued at approximately $5.18 billion at its most recent share price.

The dialysis provider saw its stock climb more than 58% so far this year, beating out lagging sector performance. Notably, Berkshire generally avoids lengthy positions in health‑care companies—a strategy evident in its current near‑peak 45% stake in DaVita, where the firm typically restricts outsizarholdings to 30–35% except during planned acquisitions.

Recent quarter‑by‑quarter trade activity shows Berkshire has been systematically reducing its DaVita holding. After reaching a peak of over 38 million shares in 2020, multiple sales were executed in early 2026 alone. In both the first and second quarters of 2026, Berkshire trimmed its stake by 1.2‑1.6 million shares per quarter as the price rallied.

Because DaVita continues to repurchase its own shares—such as a $2.2 million buyback in the second quarter—the cumulative impact pushes Berkshire’s ownership above its usual outsizer threshold. Yet even as the stock becomes more expensive, a calculated approach suggests incremental trims will allow the acquirer to lock in multihundred‑percent gains while staying below concentration limits.

The valuation picture is nuanced. DaVita enjoys a near‑zero‑sum contest against Germany‑based Fresenius Medical Care, which commands roughly equivalent market share. Fresenius trades on lower earnings multiples than DaVita. Nonetheless, the company benefits from sustained demand for dialysis services, bolstered by newer GLP‑1 weight‑loss and kidney‑protective therapies that extend patient survival despite rising treatment costs.

*Stock Advisor returns as of September 29, 2026.*

Consider, however, that the Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst roster did not rank DaVita among its top ten picks for immediate consideration—though a single initial investment could have generated extraordinary outcomes. An equally long‑standing example shows how future returns can dwarf expectations: according to Motley Fool’s 2004 shortlist, a $1,000 portfolio would become $383,680 by 2006; the same investment grew to $1,382,954 by 2008 under a different set of selections. Their combined historical performance exceeds 937% annually, far surpassing the S&P 500’s 214%.

Key takeaways for prospective investors:

• The stock has experienced marked upside and deserves careful assessment of entry timing.
• While the bear side highlights elevated multiples and structural risks, the bull side points to durable clinical demand and a disciplined management profile.
• If the current trend persists, the combination of incremental selling and continued enterprise expansion could deliver compelling upside.

Next steps: Perform a full due diligence, evaluate personal risk tolerance, and align decisions with a diversified investment thesis.

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