President Trump had appeared headed for a significant political setback on Tuesday evening.
His favored Senate candidate in South Carolina, Darline Graham, had acknowledged during a debate that she was not “that informed on national security.” His previously frugal super PAC was compelled to invest more than $800,000 in her campaign. Numerous South Carolina Republicans anticipated her defeat, which would have marked the president’s initial Senate primary loss of the year.
Yet, as Mr. Trump has frequently demonstrated since ascending to power a decade ago, he confounded electoral expectations.
Ms. Graham’s slim primary runoff victory on Tuesday in the contest to succeed her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, showcased the president’s substantial political and financial commitment to her candidacy. His involvement guaranteed that Ms. Graham, who possessed virtually no political background and remained largely obscure prior to her brother’s passing last month, is now positioned to hold the Senate seat through at least 2032.
The South Carolina result, one of the concluding significant primaries ahead of November’s midterm elections, reaffirmed Mr. Trump’s sway over the Republican base. This came months after his spring campaign of political retribution that expelled several G.O.P. adversaries from Congress. Additionally, Ms. Graham’s success accompanied another Trump-backed contender, Mike Mazzei, winning a competitive Republican gubernatorial primary runoff in Oklahoma.
Mr. Trump’s political standing had appeared somewhat diminished in recent weeks. His approval ratings have declined, his party’s midterm prospects have grown bleaker, and his endorsed candidates in multiple gubernatorial and House contests have come up short.
Although Ms. Graham prevailed in South Carolina on Tuesday, the victory required considerable resources. As Mr. Trump and his party work to preserve Republican congressional majorities, he devoted substantial time and energy to a contest for a reliably conservative seat unlikely to affect Congressional control.
Nevertheless, South Carolina Republican voters demonstrated that the party’s political character and prospects remain deeply connected to Mr. Trump, even as the party contemplates its post-Trump future.
“They still trust the president,” remarked Ida Martin, a Republican state executive committeewoman from Williamsburg County. “Trump came for her, and people showed up.”
Ms. Graham’s victory likely reflected the enduring loyalty that many South Carolina Republicans held for her brother, who served in the Senate for over twenty years. However, it equally highlighted the president’s persistent capacity to shape primary outcomes. Several South Carolina voters indicated they had been undecided, and that the president’s endorsement proved decisive in their final choice.
“South Carolina is truly Trump country,” Ms. Graham declared at her election night gathering, expressing gratitude to the president for his backing.
Mr. Trump’s hold on his party has frequently appeared strongest in the Southern states.
The region produced some of his most notable primary season victories: voters adhered to his guidance by removing Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky. They also supported his Senate choice in Georgia, elevating Representative Mike Collins despite Republican concerns that the congressman’s right-wing ideology could jeopardize the party’s prospects in a race that might determine Senate control.
Voters who supported Mr. Trump in South Carolina faced minimal general election concerns, as the primary winner is heavily favored to win in November. However, they had to overlook or accept Ms. Graham’s unconventional profile. She was relatively unknown before the summer and appeared to hold few definitive policy positions beyond her belief that transgender girls should not participate in girls’ sports.
“I don’t speak politician,” Ms. Graham informed Fox News while campaigning for the influential office. Addressing her debate misstep regarding Taiwan’s significance to U.S. interests, she stated: “Of course, Taiwan is our friend. But I think people in South Carolina are more worried about making ends meet. They’re concerned about boys in girls’ sports.”
Ms. Graham had never served in elected office before her brother’s death. She was appointed to his seat by South Carolina’s Republican governor, Henry McMaster.
Her inexperience became a central issue in her runoff against an established politician: Representative Ralph Norman, a five-term legislator supported by incumbent senators and Nikki Haley, the state’s former Republican governor. Meanwhile, vulnerabilities in Mr. Trump’s typically resilient endorsement record had surfaced just a week prior, when he failed to deliver victories for Republican primary candidates in Florida and Wyoming. Earlier this year, South Carolina Republican voters had already rejected the president’s preferences in the state’s gubernatorial race.
Mr. Trump made extraordinary efforts to prevent another defeat in South Carolina, intensifying his involvement during the final days of a race he had largely orchestrated from the outset.
By election day, he had traveled to the state for a rally and participated in a virtual rally the previous evening. His super PAC made an unusual financial commitment to the contest, bombarding voters with phone calls and text messages urging support for Ms. Graham.
“Your state is so important to me,” Mr. Trump stated at the virtual rally, underscoring how personally invested he was in the race. “I love her. I think she’s great. I asked her to do it — I got her into this whole thing. I have to make sure she gets in.” (It remained unclear whether Mr. Trump had actually encouraged her to run.)
The president also pressed a former candidate in the race, Representative Russell Fry, to back Ms. Graham. Mr. Fry complied, issuing an endorsement asserting that Mr. Trump required “fighters and allies in the Senate.”
The president was requesting that weary South Carolina voters, who had already participated in three elections since early June, return for yet another primary. The effectiveness of his outreach was evident: hundreds of thousands of voters turned out at polling locations across the state, surpassing the typically lower runoff participation rates.
Bob Heckman, a veteran consultant to Lindsey Graham who assisted with Ms. Graham’s campaign, noted that the president’s team had “pushed all their chips into the table” to back her candidacy.
“It helped set the narrative for the campaign that Darline was the Trump candidate,” he remarked from Ms. Graham’s election night venue, where Elton John’s “Rocket Man” played and supporters gathered to welcome their new nominee.
Tiffany Tan contributed reporting.
