Turkey Eliminated from World Cup 2026 as Paraguay Prevail Despite Almiron Dismissal; USMNT Secure Group Victory

We appreciate reader Jan-David A, who contacted us at live@theathletic.com with the following query:

“There appears to be a high proportion of shots missing the target, and numerous attacks conclude with speculative long-range efforts. Is this characteristic of international football generally, or a specific trend at this World Cup? In Turkey’s match today, with 30 shots, significantly more should have been on target and the expected goals (xG) figure considerably higher.”

This is an excellent question, which we will put to The Athletic’s data analysts. However, the immediate explanation for Turkey’s profligacy lies in the desperation that took hold during the match.

With Paraguay reduced to ten men, the prudent approach for Turkey would have been to circulate the ball quickly and decisively to the unmarked player. This would have forced Paraguay to chase, kept the ball in play, exhausted their outfield players, and avoided needless fouls and set-pieces that consume valuable time.

Instead, Paraguay’s time-wasting tactics created a false sense of urgency for Turkey, prompting them to resort to low-percentage long-range attempts, hopeful crosses, and rushed finishes when genuine opportunities arose.

It is worth noting that other teams have demonstrated clinical efficiency with limited chances at this tournament. Brazil, for instance, scored three goals from just five shots on target and nine attempts overall earlier today. This contrast warrants deeper analysis to determine whether the trend is tournament-specific or inherent to the international game.

We welcome your thoughts, questions, and observations via the email address above, or you can join the discussion in the comments section below.

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