Tensions between Turkey and Israel have sharply escalated following an Israeli airstrike on a Syrian military airbase near the Turkish border, just days after Ankara finalized a landmark defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Ankara swiftly condemned Tuesday’s Israeli strike on Syria’s Abu Duhur military airbase, located roughly 70 kilometres from the Turkish frontier, denouncing it as illegal and a violation of Syrian sovereignty. As a key backer of Syria’s new administration, Turkey views the strike as a direct challenge to its regional influence. Israel, conversely, justified the operation by accusing Ankara of seeking to expand its military footprint in Syria—a development Jerusalem considers a significant strategic threat.
“Israel is uneasy about the Turkish presence in Syria, and Turkish ambitions to play a major role in Syria’s future are unsettling from an Israeli perspective,” said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a Turkey expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. “There is concern that Turkey will establish its own bases in Syria,” she added.
Friction between the two regional powers has grown steadily over Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon, compounded by Ankara’s support for Hamas, evolving into a broader geopolitical rivalry. “In general, there is uneasiness in Israel about Turkey’s assertiveness, both in Syria and in the Mediterranean and other parts of the Middle East and the greater regional arena,” Lindenstrauss noted.
Landmark Agreement
Earlier this month, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a historic military accord in Mecca. Dubbed the Mecca Accord, the alliance commits the signatories to mutual defence in the event any member is attacked—a mechanism comparable to NATO’s Article 5.
According to Turkish international relations expert Soli Özel, the pact stems from growing uncertainty regarding Washington’s willingness or capacity to protect its regional allies amid ongoing tensions involving Iran. “Undoubtedly, the United States is proving to be an increasingly unreliable partner. Countries worldwide, especially in the larger Middle East region, are looking for other ways to provide security for themselves,” Özel said.
The three nations view their partnership as complementary: Pakistan contributes military capabilities and nuclear deterrence; Saudi Arabia provides financial resources; and Turkey offers a burgeoning defence industry and a large standing army. While the accord claims not to target any specific state, analysts suggest Iran and Israel are its principal focus. “Those three parties agree that Iran is a destabilising actor, as is Israel,” Özel explained.
The agreement is expected to deepen defence and intelligence cooperation, with Saudi investment bolstering Turkey’s expanding defence sector. “The deal is meant to signal both to Iran and Israel that they will be isolated in the region if they continue with assertive, belligerent policies,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution.
‘Two Axes in the Middle East’
Despite Iran’s past attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Aydintasbas argues that the mutual defence clause will not automatically draw Turkey and Pakistan into a direct conflict with Tehran. “We know that they have no desire to get involved. But it does mean there will be greater military cooperation,” she said.
Countering Houthi rebel attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea could serve as the alliance’s first operational test. However, Aydintasbas cautioned that the Mecca Accord will not replace the United States as the “ultimate security provider” for the region. Instead, it reflects a burden-sharing approach that aligns with Washington’s broader strategic agenda. The U.S. has reportedly given its blessing to the accord, and discussions on expanding the bloc are already underway.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has hinted that Egypt could be the next member, with Turkish media reporting that Cairo’s foreign minister is slated to meet his Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani counterparts in Istanbul later this month. “Developments in Egypt are of major concern to Israel,” Lindenstrauss observed, though she views the Mecca Accord as a potential opportunity for Jerusalem given shared apprehensions among its own regional partners.
“Israel already has very close relations with Greece, Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and India,” she noted. “I do envision a deepening of this relationship. And so we have the formation of two loose axes in the Greater Middle East.”