U.S. Air Force Accelerates MQ-9 Reaper Successor Program Following Significant Iranian Combat Losses

The destruction of dozens of MQ-9 Reaper drones by Iranian air defenses has accelerated the U.S. Air Force’s initiative to replace its aging strike and surveillance remotely piloted aircraft with a more affordable and capable alternative, according to service leaders.

“As we approach the end of the MQ-9’s operational lifespan, early discussions regarding its successor were already underway, but the losses sustained in recent combat operations significantly accelerated that dialogue,” said Lt. Gen. Christopher J. Niemi, the Air Force’s chief modernization officer, during a Thursday press roundtable.

The service has lost at least 45 MQ-9s during the conflict in Iran, representing roughly one-quarter of its total fleet, as reported by the Washington Post in August. While the total cost of the lost fleet remains unclear, an Air Force fact sheet estimates the unit cost of an MQ-9 variant at $51 million in 2011 dollars, which equates to nearly $82 million in current funds.

Niemi stated that the Air Force intends to procure a minimum of 180 MQ-9 replacements, designated as Massed Modular Aircraft (MMA), at a significantly reduced price point. He noted that the target cost for a single MMA should be approximately half that of the $20 million Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), whose initial production contracts were awarded in June, four months ahead of schedule.

However, these approximate cost targets—$20 million for the CCA and $10 million for the MMA—apply only to bare airframes, excluding the expensive sensors and systems that enable the drones to fulfill their missions.

A service spokesperson clarified later that these figures “do not refer to total missionized costs.”

Niemi emphasized that this approach reflects lessons drawn from past and ongoing conflicts.

“Our assessment of global threats, combined with our real-world experience, indicates that we will lose more military hardware in future conflicts than in history. This drives a fundamental principle: we need assets that are easier to produce, cheaper to acquire, and affordable to lose in greater quantities,” he stated. “Currently, we lack sufficient assets that fit this paradigm, so we are trying to shift the paradigm by introducing platforms like the MMA, thereby providing the warfighter with more options in future engagements.”

For the $10 million price point, the Air Force also demands an increased payload capacity of 2,800 pounds and an unfueled combat radius of 2,300 nautical miles, or 8,000 nautical miles for one-way missions, according to a July Defense Innovation Unit solicitation. While General Atomics, the Reaper’s manufacturer, offers the SkyGuardian—an upgraded MQ-9 variant with a larger wingspan, range, and endurance—top service officials appear hesitant to rely on it.

“One potential option would be an MQ-9B, essentially an updated MQ-9A, but we believe that is not the right direction for the Air Force,” Niemi explained. “The primary reason, which we are observing in the Middle East and assessing in global threats, is the need for a portfolio of assets that is more attritable than what we have historically fielded.”

General Atomics spokesperson C. Mark Brinkley defended the Reaper’s operational record, highlighting praise from the Air Force’s top uniformed leader for the aircraft’s performance during Operation Epic Fury. He added that the company has collaborated with the Air Force “to achieve cost targets for three decades” and will continue pursuing other programs.

“The MQ-9’s unique combination of endurance, payload, range, sensors, weapons, connectivity, adaptability, and reliability precisely enables mission effects that other platforms struggle to replicate,” Brinkley stated. “Today’s Reaper is not the same aircraft that rolled out 25 years ago; it has been enhanced and upgraded numerous times. It has also been rightfully called the MVP of Epic Fury. While we can debate many things, we can all agree it is a special aircraft that gets the job done.”

The Senate Armed Services Committee is supporting the platform in its version of the 2027 National Defense Authorization Act by imposing limits on retirements and calling for additional purchases by 2028.

General Atomics has also reportedly introduced a new MMA offering featuring a 10,000-nautical-mile ferry range and the capability to carry four Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles. Brinkley, while continuing to defend the Reaper, also promoted the company’s next-generation aircraft.

“Our new Wildfire aircraft addresses all the concerns outlined in the MMA solicitation. We can deliver years earlier while maintaining the same high quality,” Brinkley stated. “You can have everything that makes the Reaper special, plus more, at a price that doesn’t break the bank. The Reaper is special, and the Wildfire is special, too.”

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