U.S. Wheat Futures Fall on Monday amid Slow Planting, Rain Forecast, and Declining Export Momentum

Wheat futures declined across major exchanges on Monday. Chicago SRW futures fell 4.5 to 10.25 cents, Kansas City HRW dropped 8.25 to 10.75 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat lost 6 to 10 cents.

According to the NASS weekly Crop Progress report, 80% of the wheat crop had been planted, running 4% behind the normal pace, with emergence at 56% versus a 61% historical average. The initial condition rating showed only 38% of the U.S. crop in good or excellent condition, a 10‑percentage‑point decline from last year. This corresponds to a Brugler500 index score of 313— the second‑lowest initial rating on record.

Moisture is returning to the forecast, with NOAA projecting 1‑5 inches of precipitation over the next seven days across a broad swath from the Texas Panhandle to the Great Lakes region.

The latest weekly Export Inspections report recorded shipments of 248,534 metric tons (9.13 million bushels), down 7.4% from the prior week but up 25.3% year‑over‑year. Cumulative marketing‑year exports now total 9.509 million metric tons (349.4 million bushels), reflecting a 33.5% increase compared with the same period last year.

December 2024 CBOT wheat settled at $5.58¾, down 10.25 cents.

March 2025 CBOT wheat settled at $5.79½, down 9.75 cents.

December 2024 KCBT wheat settled at $5.61½, down 10.5 cents.

March 2025 KCBT wheat settled at $5.75½, down 10.75 cents.

December 2024 MGEX wheat settled at $5.95¼, down 10 cents.

March 2025 MGEX wheat settled at $6.18, down 9.5 cents.

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