UFC 332 Wagering Splits: Mapping the Flow of Sharp Money This Weekend

UFC 332 presents two primary sharp indicators, both favoring underdogs, accompanied by a cluster of narrower edges across the undercard. In these betting splits, the key metric is handle share versus ticket share; when a fighter’s portion of total dollars wagered significantly outstrips their portion of total bets, that side is being backed by larger, more sophisticated capital.

The Two Primary Sharp Indicators

The most significant signal comes from Deiveson Figueiredo at +525 against Payton Talbott. Although Talbott is the -750 favorite holding 68% of tickets, he commands only 22% of the handle. Conversely, Figueiredo has secured 78% of the money on just 32% of the bets, creating a 46-point discrepancy. With Talbott’s bet share declining and Figueiredo’s rising as fight time approaches, the public appears to be following the substantial money toward the underdog.

Nearly as compelling is Court McGee (+185) versus Eric Nolan (-225). Nolan is attracting 75% of the wagers but only 31% of the dollars. McGee holds 69% of the handle on merely 25% of the tickets, a 44-point gap. When a fighter at this price absorbs more than two-thirds of the total dollars, it signals a clear divergence between the sharps and the public favorite.

Additional Market Edges

Several other contests display smaller, yet still noteworthy, divergences:

• Marvin Vettori (+120) vs. Ismail Naurdiev (-142): Vettori holds 73% of the handle on 49% of bets, a 24-point gap. Naurdiev has 51% of tickets but only 27% of the money.
• Imanol Rodriguez (-155) vs. Alden Coria (+130): Rodriguez has 67% of the handle on 43% of bets, another 24-point gap. This represents a favorite the sharps like, while the public leans toward Coria’s plus price.
• Mick Parkin (+110) vs. Johnny Walker (-130): Parkin controls 54% of the handle on 35% of bets, a 19-point gap on a near pick’em line.
• Marcus McGhee (-500) vs. Anthony Romero (+380): McGhee commands 99% of the handle against 82% of bets, a 17-point gap where sharps are comfortable laying the heavy price.

Three additional lean-level opportunities round out the market. Roman Kopylov (+185) has 42% of the money on 25% of bets against Ateba Gautier. Khaos Williams (+215) holds 52% of the handle on 36% of tickets against Roberto Soldic. Esteban Ribovics (-230) has 70% of the handle on 54% of bets against King Green. With gaps ranging from 16 to 17 points, these represent lean signals rather than strong plays.

Where Public and Sharp Money Agree

Some matchups show no meaningful split, offering no sharp edge to highlight. Alexander Hernandez (-290) sits at 84% of handle and 81% of bets against Rafael Dos Anjos. Anthony Wint (-520) is at 97% handle and 93% bets against Lucas Armand. Jacobe Smith (-1100) over Bruce Whitehead shows a modest 88% handle to 94% bets, with tickets slightly outpacing dollars.

For bettors tracking smart money into UFC 332, Figueiredo and McGee are the headline sharp underdog positions. Vettori, Rodriguez, and Parkin form the next tier of interest. The heavy-favorite spots appear to be public-driven chalk with minimal sharp differentiation.

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