In 2022, amid growing concerns about Europe’s ability to defend against Russian missile attacks, the Biden administration authorized Germany to construct a facility for producing advanced Patriot air-defense interceptors.
The plant has not yet delivered a single Patriot missile, highlighting the lengthy timeline and challenges involved in scaling up production of U.S. weaponry overseas, even after securing Washington’s approval.
This experience serves as a warning for Ukraine, where officials had voiced optimism about launching Patriot production swiftly after President Trump announced on Wednesday that he would grant Kyiv the long‑requested license to manufacture the interceptors.
Aside from Germany and Japan, no other U.S. allies hold comparable production licenses, and neither country has ramped up output anywhere near the pace Ukraine anticipates.
European leaders continue to depend heavily on U.S.-made arms while pursuing indigenous alternatives. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz noted this on Thursday, revealing that his administration had secured an agreement with the United States to procure American‑built Tomahawk missiles.
“A production license alone does not guarantee rapid results,” observed Satoru Mori, professor of contemporary international politics at Keio University in Tokyo, citing Japan’s Patriot program. “It represents an immensely complex aerospace engineering undertaking.”
How Japan and Germany Secured Their Patriot Licenses
In the early 2000s, Japanese officials worried that domestic defenses were insufficient to counter North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats. In 2005, the United States granted Japan a license to manufacture advanced systems, including the PAC-3 “hit-to-kill” Patriot interceptors, through a collaboration with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin.
The U.S. move reflected “a natural progression following years of defense cooperation and trust,” noted Jeffrey W. Hornung, a Japan specialist at the RAND Corporation in Washington.
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces required three years to complete the first successful test of the PAC-3 system. Today, the country manufactures roughly thirty Patriot missiles annually, according to some estimates.
Germany received its license amid concerns that, after years of concentrating on Ukraine, Russia might eventually aim its missiles at Western Europe. The license was followed by a 2024 agreement for a German plant to deliver up to 1,000 missiles to Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Romania. The facility, located in Schrobenhausen in southern Germany, is slated to start production next year.
Why Ukraine Cannot Simply Purchase Patriots from Germany
Once Germany’s Patriot facility becomes operational next year, it will initially be able to ship missiles to Ukraine more quickly than Kyiv can produce them under its own license. German lawmaker and weapons expert Anton Hofreiter stressed that allies must supply Patriots to Ukraine “as quickly as possible” until Ukraine can manufacture them independently.
However, Ukraine cannot rely entirely on external assistance, as the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have depleted global Patriot inventories and driven demand beyond current production capacity. In 2023, Japan began reselling some of its domestically built Patriots to the United States to help replenish American shipments destined for Ukraine.
Establishing its own production capability will ultimately boost Kyiv’s missile stockpile and reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers for defense.
Why Scaling Up Production Is Challenging
Producing a Patriot missile requires securing agreements with about two dozen suppliers responsible for different components of the manufacturing process.
Although Germany’s progress has been deliberate, it has benefited from pre‑existing engineering know‑how. Prior to receiving the license, the operators of the new Patriot plant had maintained a long‑standing contract to service U.S.-made Patriot systems, giving them established ties with suppliers and toolmakers.
Ukraine, by contrast, must begin from scratch—a formidable challenge given the current circumstances.
Japan enjoyed the advantage of building up Patriot stocks during a period of regional peace, a luxury Ukraine does not possess.
“You have to build the plane while it’s in flight,” remarked Mr. Hornung, the Japan expert. “They will want to get started as quickly as possible, but it’s essential to put the proper safeguards in place.”
Kiuko Notoya contributed reporting from Tokyo.
