US Dollar Forecast: Tariff Refunds and Inflation Shape USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

Currency markets are experiencing considerable uncertainty amid mixed signals from interest rate expectations following the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Even though a bullish hammer candle appeared, the Relative Strength Index remains below its midpoint, indicating continued bearish momentum for the pair.

The outlook hinges on the movement of the U.S. Dollar. A breakout above 100.50 in the Dollar Index could pressure EURUSD, whereas a consolidation between 96 and 100.50 would likely sustain EURUSD’s range.

Short‑term EURUSD dynamics appear constructive on the 4‑hour chart. The pair formed a rounding‑bottom formation in March 2026, and a subsequent breakout from the cup pattern created another rounding bottom above 1.158, after respecting the trend‑line support. This structure suggests bullish momentum for EURUSD in the near term.

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