The dollar index (DXY00) today is down by -0.13%. The dollar is under pressure today after US May consumer prices rose as expected, easing inflation fears and potentially keeping the Fed from tightening monetary policy.
Losses in the dollar are limited as today’s stock weakness has boosted liquidity demand for the dollar. Also, today’s +1% jump in crude oil prices raises inflation expectations and could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy, a supportive factor for the dollar.
US May CPI rose +4.2% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of increase in 3 years. May core CPI rose +2.9% y/y, right on expectations, and the fastest pace of increase in 7 months.
The dollar also benefits from safe-haven demand amid the ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran. Overnight, the US and Iran exchanged strikes, and the US said it had completed an operation that saw fighter jets strike Iranian air defenses, ground control stations, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran shooting down a US Apache helicopter. In response, Iran launched missiles at four US military targets and fired drones at the main US naval base in the Middle East, located in Bahrain, and struck Ali Al Salem air base in Kuwait. President Trump said that Iran has taken too long to make a deal and that they will now have to “pay the price,” fueling concerns that the US may escalate military attacks on Iran.
The swaps markets are discounting the odds at +0% for a +25 bp rate cut hike at the next FOMC meeting on June 16-17.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.12%. Dollar weakness today is supportive of the euro. Also, expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates by +25 bp on Thursday are bullish for the euro. Gains in the euro are limited as today’s +1% rally in crude oil prices is negative for the Eurozone economy and the euro, as Europe imports most of its energy.
The markets are discounting a +100% chance for a +25 bp rate hike by the ECB at Thursday’s policy meeting.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.04%. The yen added to Tuesday’s losses today and fell to a fresh 5-week low against the dollar. Today’s +1% rally in crude oil prices is bearish for the Japanese economy and the yen as Japan imports more than 90% of its energy needs. Also, higher T-note yields today are negative for the yen.
Losses in the yen are limited after Japan’s May producer prices rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for BOJ policy. The yen also has carryover support from Tuesday’s hawkish report from Nikkei, which stated that the BOJ is set to raise its policy rate by 25 bp to 1.00% at next week’s policy meeting.
Japan May PPI rose +0.9% m/m and +6.3% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.8% m/m and +5.6% y/y, with the +6.3% y/y gain the largest year-on-year increase in more than 3 years.
The markets are discounting a +99% chance of a +25 bp BOJ rate hike at the next policy meeting on June 16.