The USD/CAD pair extended its upward momentum last week, encountering resistance at the 1.4290 Fibonacci level. The initial bias remains neutral as the week begins, with further gains likely as long as the key 1.4200 support level holds firm. A decisive break above 1.4292 could propel the pair toward the 100% projection level of 1.4497, measured from the 1.3480 to 1.4247 range starting at 1.3730. However, a bearish divergence on the 4-hour MACD suggests that a breach of the 1.4200 support could signal a short-term top, shifting the bias toward a deeper pullback.
On a broader scale, the current bullish momentum indicates that the rally starting from 1.3480 is reversing the entire decline from the 2025 high of 1.4791. A decisive close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.4290 would open the path toward retesting the 1.4791 high. Conversely, a rejection at this level could rekindle medium-term bearish pressures.
Looking at the long-term outlook, robust support from the 55-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently situated at 1.3654, supports the view that the broader uptrend from the 2007 low of 0.9056 remains intact. Ultimately, a break above the 1.4791 level remains favored in the coming stages.
