USD/JPY fell to 157.99 last week but has since rebounded. The immediate bias for this week remains neutral. A break below 157.99 could trigger further declines, aiming at the 155.22 low after the drop from 159.76. Conversely, upward movement may encounter resistance between 159.59 and 160.62, which aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the 163.97–155.22 decline.
From a broader perspective, the primary uptrend is expected to resume above the 155.01 support area, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 139.87–163.97 move (near 154.76). Should this level hold, the pair can target the 163.97 peak after the current pullback. A decisive break below 155.01, however, may signal the start of a broader correction, potentially opening the door for a deeper decline toward the 139.87 low recorded in 2025.
The long‑term uptrend that began at the 75.56 low of 2011 remains intact. The next intermediate target is the 61.8% projection of the 102.58–161.94 move, calculated from the 139.87 level, which points to roughly 176.55. As long as the 139.87 support holds, the bullish bias persists, even if the pair experiences a sharp counter‑trend pullback.
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