USD/JPY extended its decline to 152.87 last week before shifting into a consolidation phase. The near-term bias remains neutral as the pair undergoes initial range-building. A move below 152.87 would extend the ongoing decline from 163.79 toward the 149.07 Fibonacci level. Conversely, a breakout above 154.79 minor resistance would signal near-term bottoming and pave the way for a stronger rebound toward the 55-period 4-hour EMA, currently situated at 155.51, and potentially beyond.
From a medium-term perspective, the current price action suggests that the decline from the 163.97 interim high is at least a corrective retracement of the broader uptrend that began at 139.87. Further weakness is expected to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 139.87-to-163.97 move, located at 149.07. A decisive break below that level would increase the probability of a larger bearish reversal, targeting the 139.87 support zone. In the event of a rebound, downside risk persists as long as the 160.38 resistance level remains intact.
In the long-term view, the broader outlook stays bullish provided that the 139.87 major support holds, even in the case of a significant pullback. The prevailing uptrend from the 75.56 cycle low established in 2011 remains poised to resume once the current correction from 163.97 completes.
