Walmart Q2 Earnings Preview: Key Metrics and Consumer Outlook

Walmart is set to release its fiscal second-quarter earnings before the market opens on Thursday, providing the latest assessment of U.S. consumer health.

The retailer has been focusing on value strategies for lower-income shoppers while also attracting higher-income customers, though it has noted a widening income divide.

As the nation’s largest retailer, Walmart offers a distinctive view into consumer spending patterns.

Analyst expectations, based on an LSEG survey, anticipate the following:

• Earnings per share: 74 cents expected
• Revenue: $186.77 billion expected

Last quarter, the company issued a dimmer-than-expected annual outlook due to rising gas prices and declining consumer confidence. Its fiscal first quarter marked only the third time in 16 quarters that Walmart missed earnings expectations.

Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey noted previously that larger tax refunds may have eased pressure on consumers early in the year.

“It’s something we’re monitoring closely, but that assumption is factored into our second-quarter guidance,” Rainey stated at the time.

Bernstein analysts suggested in a late July note that Walmart’s comparable sales are slowing as the effect of tariff-driven price increases fades, contributing to prior revenue growth.

“This, combined with grocery price-cutting, weak signals from peers, and ongoing inflation impacting lower-income shoppers, creates significant uncertainty,” the note read.

Nevertheless, analysts maintain Walmart holds a strong fundamental position supported by its pricing, product assortment, and delivery capabilities.

The company is also expected to discuss how tariff refunds influenced its quarterly results.

Competitor Target reported a $752 million boost to net earnings, or $1.65 per share, from tariff refunds this quarter. Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s also saw earnings increases from such refunds, with Home Depot noting $685 million of its refunds went toward reducing cost of goods sold.

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