WARSAW, Poland — According to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, two recent incidents along Ukraine’s borders with Poland and Moldova serve as a precursor to potential escalated Russian provocations at European border crossing points.
Tusk stated on Thursday that two people lost their lives when Russian drones struck the Starokozache border crossing between Ukraine and Moldova on Tuesday night. He added that a “direct threat” to a Polish-Ukrainian crossing point on Wednesday night was narrowly averted through cooperation between Warsaw and Kyiv.
He provided no further specifics regarding the incident and offered no evidence implicating Russia.
On Thursday, Tusk revealed he had received a briefing from CIA Director Jim Ratcliffe—who recently visited Moscow—regarding the risks Russia poses to the region in the coming months.
Speaking on Thursday in Bratislava, Slovakia, during a meeting of Central European nations and Ireland, Tusk stated, “Russia has already resolved to engage in provocative attacks on border crossing points, such as those in Moldova. We anticipate comparable actions targeting border crossings with Ukraine in other nations, including Poland.”
Tusk further noted that Ratcliffe’s intelligence indicated Poland and Europe must prepare for “various scenarios” on the Russian-Ukrainian front and within the EU’s eastern flank countries.
Ukraine shares borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova, in addition to Russia and its ally Belarus.
In recent weeks, Moldova—a former Soviet republic and EU membership candidate since 2022—has experienced multiple incidents near its southern border crossings with Ukraine.
On August 20, an explosion in a parking lot on Ukrainian territory—approximately 150 meters (490 feet) from Moldova’s southern Giurgiulesti border crossing—caused a vegetation fire that spread roughly 100 square meters (1,076 square feet) into Moldovan territory. That same day, border police discovered a crater on Moldovan territory about 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) from the border, where debris from a drone type used by Russia in Ukraine was found.
The following day, Moldova’s Mirnoe border was temporarily shuttered after nearby Russian strikes on Ukraine. On August 25, Moldova suspended operations at its Vulcanesti border crossing after an Iranian-made Shahed drone struck the Ukrainian side. Moldovan border police urged citizens who hear drone noises or explosions to remain calm and seek shelter.
Following Tuesday night’s border incident at the Starokozache crossing, Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu condemned Russia, declaring that Moscow’s “brutal war is reaching our border.”
“To deny the danger while Russian drones and missiles sow death and endanger Moldova, and to criticize your nation’s efforts to bolster its defense system, is to choose betrayal over the safety of your own people,” she stated in a Facebook post.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that a border crossing with NATO-member Romania in the country’s east, situated along the Danube River, was “deliberately damaged, … as well as export infrastructure.” Throughout the war, Moscow has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s river ports.
Romania has also reported an almost threefold increase in drone incursions so far this year compared to the entirety of the prior year, alongside more than double the number of drones and drone debris discovered on its territory.
For weeks, Tusk has warned that Russia could execute a limited military operation or a more significant hybrid provocation against Poland or the three Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—in the near future.
“In the last few hours, I received a fairly detailed report directly from the CIA director regarding possible incidents in the coming months—and this aligns precisely with what I have been warning about for many months,” Tusk said in Bratislava.
In late August, Ratcliffe visited Moscow and held discussions with his Russian intelligence counterparts, with Polish politicians speculating that the potential Russian threat to NATO may have been among the topics discussed.
On Tuesday, Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s minister overseeing intelligence services, met with Ratcliffe at CIA headquarters in Virginia to discuss Polish security and cooperation with the United States.
On Thursday and Friday this week, an American delegation—including William Cappelletti Jr. from the Department of Defense and Thomas DiNanno from the Department of State—is visiting Poland to inspect several potential locations for a permanent U.S. military base.
For years, Poland has sought to host a permanent U.S. base as a robust guarantee of its security amid the escalating Russian threat.
Poland’s high defense spending and substantial U.S. arms purchases have persuaded the Trump administration to consider establishing a permanent base in Poland, even as the U.S. reorganizes and reduces its overall military presence in Europe.