USD/CAD maintained its consolidation around 1.4247 throughout last week, leaving the overall outlook unchanged. The short‑term bias remains neutral for the current week. While a deeper pullback cannot be excluded, any decline is expected to stay above the 1.3965 level, which now acts as support. A decisive move above 1.4247 could reignite the rally that began at 1.3480, targeting the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4791‑to‑1.3480 swing at 1.4290; a firm breakout above that level would open the path back to the 1.4791 peak.
On a broader timescale, the recent decline from 1.4791 appears to have concluded a three‑wave correction down to 1.3480. It remains premature to determine whether the subsequent rise represents a corrective bounce or the resumption of a larger uptrend that originated from 1.2005 (the 2021 low). Nevertheless, a retest of the 1.4791 high is likely to occur.
Long‑term, the 55‑month exponential moving average, currently at 1.3631, continues to trend upward, suggesting that the bullish move from the 2007 low of 0.9056 may still be intact. However, bearish divergence in the MACD raises the possibility that a sustained breach below the 55‑month EMA could indicate that the five‑wave advance to 1.4791 has run its course, potentially opening a medium‑term correction toward the 38.2 % retracement of the 0.9056‑to‑1.4791 range at 1.2600.
