Welcome to the Riga and the Baltic military-industrial complex

Riga Conference Spotlights Baltic Nations’ Strategic Response to Russian Threat

I’m in Latvia for the two‑day Rīga Conference, which began yesterday with security and defence sitting at the heart of the agenda. Curiously, today marks the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the Twin Towers.

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The most significant takeaway so far is that no community bears a deeper understanding of Russian aggression than this forested nation. Latvia may be small yet fiercely resilient, having survived centuries of foreign domination—from the steel blades of medieval German crusaders to the shadow of the Soviet Union.

In lockstep: Conversations spanning official encounters and everyday citizens reveal the stark bleed of Russian aggression beyond Ukraine’s borders—a territory where a full‑scale invasion has raged since early 2022—making Latvia feel the threat acutely. One flag drapes beside Ukraine’s colors on street corners.

Yet personal history adds weight to this perspective. I recall a Latvian grandfather forced to flee to Australia after World War II to resist Russian forces. Decades later, I sought to understand today’s Baltic narratives—especially amid escalating hybrid warfare tactics—by speaking directly with Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine. Recent remarks he shared on European reaction to cable cuts, arson, drone strikes, and weaponized migration were reported here.

My editor, Maria Tadeo, attended the same conference margins where she met key figures such as Valdis Dombrovskis, former Latvian prime minister and current European Commissioner for the Economy. Locals in Riga remembered him as a steady, dependable leader throughout his five‑year premiership.

Economic outlook: Ukraine has appealed to its allies to bridge a €23 billion funding shortfall. The EU’s foremost monetary policymaker, Dombrovskis, warned that Brussels must precisely define Ukraine’s expanding budgetary needs before allocating reserves.
“We must conduct a thorough, data‑driven assessment, but the war continues at high intensity. If anything, Russian offensives are intensifying” — Dombrovskis stated. “Questions about the conflict remain open.”

Walking on eggshells: Another side of global tensions emerged through a conversation Maria held with Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s foreign minister. She probed the growing rift between Israel and its partners, inflamed by rising settler violence in the occupied West Bank and sanctions imposed by several European states and Canada. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saár responded that aid to Gaza is not a reward for terrorism but rather a signal supporting a reasonable Palestinian state. He emphasized: “This supports those Palestinians seeking a decent sovereign state; the PA is unrelated to Hamas, which is its adversary, and this represents genuine support for moderate Palestinians.”

Although I am based in Riga, colleagues in Brussels warned that high‑level discussions often drift away from frontline realities. According to Vincenzo Genovese, over 100 members of the European Parliament have urged EU leaders to revisit negotiations on leveraging Russia’s frozen assets to bolster Ukraine’s defense and financial needs.

Breaking ground: Simultaneously, work advances on the approved €90 billion loan designed to sustain Ukraine’s defences and fiscal needs. Per Jorge, the European Commission is slated to unveil an extra €6 billion in military assistance for Ukraine, comprising €3.2 billion earmarked for Patriot air‑defence interceptors critical for countering Russian ballistic missiles.

Lunch for 28: Today, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will share a meal with the bloc’s principal power brokers—the 27 ambassadors representing member states in Brussels. The meeting begins at noon to gauge her top priorities for the forthcoming year, expected to be detailed in next week’s State of the European Union address.

Her earlier statement highlighted social‑media restrictions for minors as a marquee issue, but experts caution optimistically—these promises may prove difficult to fulfill. Jorge notes von der Leyen’s reputation for discretion, tempered by an iron grip on confidential matters.

NATO Allies Successfully Thwart Russian Undersea Cable Sabotage Operation

North Atlantic Treaty Organization members have foiled a Russian attempt to compromise undersea communication cables using a covert device that leaves no detectable trace.

Reuters, citing senior Western officials, confirms the espionage was orchestrated by Russia’s elite naval undersea warfare directorate operating in Arctic waters near Norway’s Svalbard islands.

Building on prior reporting, the specifics of the operation, its detection site, and U.S. involvement have now emerged publicly.

Gael Camba provides insight into developments in this clandestine undertaking.

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We’re also keeping an eye on

• European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius participates in the inaugural board session of the EU‑Ukraine Drone Alliance in Brussels, Belgium.
• European Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib meets with the President of the Republic of Moldova Maia Sandu in Chișinău.
• European Commissioner for Sport Glenn Micallef attends the opening ceremony of the Special Olympics European Swimming Open in Misàda, Malta.

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