Wheat Futures Decline Amidst Persistent Black Sea Tensions

The wheat market experienced broad losses across major exchanges by midday, with Chicago SRW futures falling 5 to 6 cents, Kansas City HRW contracts down 8 to 9 cents, and Minneapolis spring wheat declining 7 to 8 cents during the session.

Ongoing conflicts in the Black Sea region continue to weigh on market sentiment, particularly due to strikes targeting energy infrastructure, which amplify supply chain concerns.

According to the latest NASS Crop Progress report, 96% of the U.S. spring wheat crop had been harvested by Sunday, aligning with the five-year average. However, winter wheat planting lagged, reaching only 17% completion, four percentage points behind the average pace, with emergence at just 2%.

Internationally, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange projected the 2026/27 Argentina wheat crop at 23.4 million metric tons, a notable decrease from the previous year’s 27.8 million metric tons. Meanwhile, European Union wheat exports from July 1 to September 20 totaled 6.3 million metric tons, surpassing the 6.19 million metric tons recorded in the same period last year.

Key futures contracts closed lower, with December 2026 CBOT wheat at $7.21¼, down 5½ cents; March 2027 CBOT wheat at $7.37¼, down 5½ cents; December 2026 KCBT wheat at $7.85¾, down 8¾ cents; March 2027 KCBT wheat at $7.99½, down 8¼ cents; December 2026 MIAX wheat at $7.38¾, down 7½ cents; and March 2027 MIAX wheat at $7.60½, down 7 cents.

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