Winter Is Coming: Why Vail Resorts May Have Finally Found Its Bottom

As ski season approaches, Vail Resorts (MTN) shareholders could use some fresh powder. The company operates some of North America’s premier destinations, including Whistler Blackcomb, Park City, and its namesake Vail Mountain. After several uneven winters—including historically poor Western snowfall last season—management sees a recovery in resort earnings on the horizon. This year’s snow outlook offers some encouragement for the Tahoe properties, though the Colorado forecast remains mixed.

As a technician and weather enthusiast, I’m watching whether the stock can start climbing before the actual ski lifts do. On the charts, a promising ramp is taking shape, offering an entry point with attractive risk/reward characteristics to help us navigate the moguls ahead.

On the long-term chart, the stock has shown a consistent downward slope since its 2021 peak. However, there are signs we have found the bottom, suggesting the time may be right to ride shares higher. Key technical points:

• Price has broken a five-year downtrend
• Shares have significant ground to recover and printed a higher low on the last sell-off
• An inverted head-and-shoulders bottom is forming, pending confirmation above $160
• A measured upside target of $200 on a confirmed breakout

Zooming in on the daily chart, the recent rally is running into resistance at a familiar level—the $160 area—while a slow, steady climb appears to be underway. Key technical points:

• Shares have recaptured both the 50- and 200-day moving averages
• Price made a higher low after its most recent decline
• A new defined trend is emerging, with an inflection point ahead

The Trade: We want to use recent weakness to buy at current levels. If shares break the recent uptrend, set stops just below the 200-day moving average at $139, or at your preferred level of risk tolerance.

Overall, shares have broken their long-term downtrend and look poised to pop, with limited risk of an avalanche to the downside. As the winter months set in, shareholders should be ready to enjoy the snow.

Jay Woods, CMT with Chase Games. Disclosures: None.

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