Australia and Paraguay will face off this Thursday to determine who claims the runner-up position in Group D. Paraguay’s tournament start was turbulent, beginning with a 4-1 loss to the United States before bouncing back with a disciplined 1-0 victory over Türkiye. That win was secured by a third-minute goal from Matías Galarza, and Paraguay successfully defended the lead despite playing a significant portion of the match shorthanded following Miguel Almirón’s red card.
Australia enters the match with three points of their own, having secured a 2-0 win over Türkiye thanks to goals from Nestory Irankunda and Connor Metcalfe, followed by a 2-0 defeat to the U.S. Due to a superior goal difference, Australia can secure second place with either a win or a draw. For Paraguay, a draw could still potentially allow them to advance as one of the eight best third-place teams.
The match is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET in San Francisco. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the 90-minute money line lists Paraguay as the favorite at +175, while Australia sits at +310, with a draw priced at +125. The total goals over/under is set at 1.5.
Expert Analysis and Betting Predictions
Analyzing the tactical setups, the expectation is for a low-scoring affair, with the Under 1.5 total goals (+121) appearing as a strong play. Both teams have favored conservative approaches; Australia utilized a defensive 5-4-1 formation in their victory over Türkiye, conceding 63% possession and 28 shots while relying on quick counter-attacks. Similarly, Paraguay showed immense defensive resilience by holding onto their lead while playing a man down for over 40 minutes.
The absence of Miguel Almirón due to suspension strips Paraguay of their primary creative spark. Furthermore, Paraguay’s lack of width—evidenced by winning only one corner kick in their first two games—suggests a struggle to penetrate the final third. With a draw potentially serving the interests of both sides, there is little incentive for either squad to adopt an aggressive offensive posture.
Betting Lines Overview:
- Money Line: Paraguay +175, Australia +310, Draw +125
- Over/Under: 1.5 goals
- Spread: Paraguay -0.5 (+176)
- Streaming: Fubo
