Yashar Surpasses Likud in Poll as Zionist Opposition Bloc Approaches 61-Seat Majority

In a recent Maariv poll, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party has overtaken Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud for the first time, reflecting ongoing legislative momentum within the Zionist opposition ahead of potential Knesset dissolution.

Yashar secured first place with 22 seats, an increase of two from the prior poll and surpassing its April merger tally with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid by 10 seats. Likud remained steady at 21 seats, while the Together party, formed from the Bennett-Lapid alliance, slipped to 18 seats following a one-seat decline.

The newly formed party led by former culture minister Chili Tropper and Reservist leader Yoaz Hendel garnered 2.9% of the vote, failing to meet the electoral threshold. However, it attracted support from Religious Zionist Party voters, causing that party to drop to four seats and shrinking the Netanyahu-aligned bloc to 49 seats. Meanwhile, Arab parties retained their 11-seat representation.

When asked about current voting intentions, respondents allocated 22 seats to Yashar (up from 20), 21 seats to Likud (unchanged), 10 seats each to Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats, 8 seats to Otzma Yehudit, Shas, and United Torah Judaism, 6 seats to Hadash-Ta’al, 5 seats to Ra’am, and 4 seats to the Religious Zionist Party (down from five).

Together-Yashar Merger Under Bennett Would Reach 35 Seats

A coalition between Together and Yashar under Bennett’s leadership would result in a combined 35 seats according to the poll, two more than the previous projection. This merger would allow the Tropper-Hendel party to surpass the electoral threshold with five seats, drawing voters from both Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats and Religious Zionist Party supporters.

In this scenario, the Religious Zionist Party would fail to cross the threshold, receiving only 2.4% of the vote. The resulting bloc composition would place the Netanyahu-aligned list at 48 seats, the Zionist opposition at 56, the Tropper-Hendel party at five, and Arab parties at 11. If the Tropper-Hendel party joins the Zionist opposition, the combined bloc would achieve a 61-seat majority needed for government formation.

Should Eisenkot lead the joint Yashar-Together list, the merged entity would secure 39 seats—two more than previously projected. The Tropper-Hendel party would cross the threshold with four seats, while the Religious Zionist Party would remain below it at 2.9%.

Eisenkot-Led Merger Would Secure 63-Seat Zionist Opposition Majority

Under an Eisenkot-led merger, the Zionist opposition bloc would command 59 seats, the Tropper-Hendel party four, and Arab parties 11, totaling 63 seats and forming a stable majority. This configuration would leave Netanyahu’s coalition with 46 seats.

The poll also revealed shifts in leadership preferences, with Bennett’s lead over Netanyahu narrowing to 2 points (43% vs. 41%), while Eisenkot expanded his advantage to 8 points (48% vs. 40%). Conducted by Lazar Research via Panel4All, the survey sampled 500 respondents from Israel’s adult population (including Jews and Arabs) on July 8-9, with a maximum margin of error of 4.4%.

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