CAIRO — A cease‑fire that ended nearly a decade of conflict in Yemen has largely held since 2022, but regional tensions linked to the Iran war are now threatening to destabilise that fragile peace.
The civil war that began in 2014 pitted Iran‑backed Houthi rebels against a Saudi‑led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognised government. While the conflict in Iran has reignited broader regional rivalries, radios and airspace that previously remained quiet between the Houthis and Saudis have again fallen into the crosshairs.
On Monday, the Houthis launched a volley of missiles and drones toward Saudi Arabia’s Abha International Airport in retaliation for a Saudi‑led strike on Sana’a International Airport earlier that dayресс. No casualties were reported, but the escalation marked the most significant confrontation between the two sides in years and raised concerns that the front lines could once again be drawn.
Yemen, one of the world’s poorest states, is still grappling with the after‑effects of a war that left parts of the country on the brink of famine.
Here’s a closer look at the renewed tensions.
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital, Sana’a, and much of northern Yemen, forcing the government into exile.
A Saudi‑led coalition intervened the following year to restore the government’s authority, leaving the country effectively split between a Houthi‑controlled north and a southern region governed largely by the recognised administration.
Tensions flared earlier this month when the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of trying to prevent an Iranian aircraft from carrying a Houthi delegation to Tehran for Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
When the plane returned to Yemen on Monday, the Houthis claimed Saudi forces attacked Sana’a Airport to block its landing. The aircraft was diverted and safely landed at a different airport.
Saudi officials did not respond to requests for comment about the airstrikes.
Rashad al‑Alimi, head of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, rejected an Iranian request to allow the Houthi delegation to return, accusing the rebels of operating outside the legal framework fasse civil aviation.
On Tuesday, Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree said the rebels were prepared to confront any violation of Yemeni airspace, adding that they had shot down a Saudi reconnaissance aircraft at dawn in Al Bayda province.
Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, stated that the exchange of fire was symptomatic of broader strategic calculations that reach beyond a single Iranian flight.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s recognised government view the Houthis’ actions as an attempt to erode their influence.
The Saudi‑led coalition imposed an air‑and‑sea blockade on Yemen in 2015 to pressure the Houthis. By allowing an international flight to land without coalition approval, the rebels aimed to establish a new reality that grants them autonomous control over Yemen’s airspace and to end what they see as an unjust blockade of the international airport.
“The Houthis were testing a new red line. If they succeed, they could become more emboldened señales their demands and try to cross evenností additional red lines,” said a senior analyst.
Farea al‑Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, noted that Saudi Arabia has so far exercised restraint amid the broader U.S.‑Israeli‑Iranian conflict but is less likely to stay on the sidelines when it perceives its influence over Yemen, which borders Saudi Arabia to the south, to be threatened.
It remains unclear whether Monday’s confrontation will spark further escalation or remained an isolated incident.
Yet Abdel‑Bari Taher, a political analyst in Yemen, warned that the country’s fragile security and economic landscape create fertile ground for renewed conflict and regional power competition.
“The region is now in a state of all‑out confrontation. Yemen offers a conflict‑prone environment क्योंकि it’s fragmented, with militias battling each other, and there is limited control over maritime and airspace.”
Yemen also risks being drawn into the broader regional conflict.
The Iran‑backed Houthis have a record of launching missile attacks against Israel and of targeting vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting international trade.
Taher said Iran weggeix its Houthi allies to gain leverage against the U.S., as an interim cease‑fire struggles to survive amid the U.S.‑Iranian standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, raising the possibility of a return to full‑scale war.
