2026 NFL Week 9: Premier Picks, Game Odds & Player Props Guide

Bengals (-3.5) vs Falcons: O/U 52.5

The Bengals and Falcons kick off in Madrid, Spain, at 9:30 AM Eastern Sunday morning, so set your alarms! This should be a fantastic matchup, and I am looking at the Atlanta offense for a bounce-back opportunity. Last week against Tampa Bay, the Falcons lost in soaking rain as Michael Penix threw four interceptions while Atlanta’s defense was pushed. In sunny conditions, we should expect the Falcons to play very differently.

The Bengals are on a three-game winning streak over Miami, Baltimore, and Tennessee. Cam Ward threw for 304 yards and touchdowns, plus Tony Pollard ran for 117 yards and two scores on the Bengals. The Bengals’ four wins all come against teams with losing records so far, while the Falcons have shown potential with victories over Green Bay and San Francisco. I still believe the Falcons have the highest ceiling in the NFC South. I’ll take the +3.5 down to +3.

Pick: Falcons +3.5 (1 unit)

Giants (-3) at Eagles: O/U 38.5

For the first time since November 1, 2009, the New York Giants are favorites in Philadelphia, and that’s no mistake. Things have been dire during the Eagles’ six-game losing streak that they’ve benched Tanner McKee in favor of Joe Milton. Philadelphia has a bye week coming up next, so this is them trying to determine what they have before deciding on their intentions in the second half of the season.

If the Eagles lose this game, they are borderline out of the postseason before Week 11 starts, but that desperation doesn’t interest me because they haven’t had any rhythm amid all the injuries. The Giants, on the other hand, are in first place in the division, coming out of a bye week after an impressive 27-21 OT win over Houston. New York has found something with J.J. McCarthy, and if Cam Skattebo and Malik Nabers are purchased in like they were against Houston (232 combined yards), then I am in. I like the Giants -3.

Pick: Giants -3 (1 unit)

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Packers at Patriots (-3): O/U 44.5

Green Bay has averaged a league-high 81.7% of their yards through the air, and 65.7% of their plays are passes. At some point, regression has to hit, and the backfield becomes more reliable. Josh Jacobs has started to turn the wheels of regression, but as we’ve seen through two games, it may take time.

This matchup will be interesting since New England runs the third-most man coverage (29%). Love has completed 51% of his passes against man (25th) for 6.2 yards per attempt (6.2). Love’s faced a slew of bad defenses this season, and New England certainly isn’t bad. Christian Watson is a go, so I expect plenty of passes, but 37.5 is still steep despite Love throwing 41-plus times in three straight.

I am going to sell high on Love and also go under Matthew Golden’s 68.5 receiving yards. Last week, Watson was very active before he suffered an injury that opened the door for Golden to break his receiving yards prop. Golden has gone over his yards prop in three of his last four games and saw 12-plus targets in three straight. However, Golden ranks 66th in target separation versus man coverage, and going up Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III won’t be easy. I’m going under on both Love and Golden.

Picks: Jordan Love Under 37.5 Pass Attempts (1 unit), Matthew Golden Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (1 unit)

Cardinals at Seahawks (-8.5): O/U 39.5

Last week, I lost on Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 101.5 receiving yards in garbage time, but you better believe I am running it back. JSN has been nothing short of spectacular. If the season ended today, he is the Offensive Player of the Year. JSN leads the league in receiving yards (985) and receiving touchdowns (9). He has four straight games with 100-plus receiving yards and seven out of eight on the season, but I am going Under.

Arizona traded Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jacoby Brissett away and will roll with Gardner Minshew for the meantime. Sam Darnold is out for Seattle, so Drew Lock will step up. Luckily for Lock, Seattle’s backfield is more crowded than ever and willing to assist. Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet both returned in the last two weeks, plus George Holani and Emmanuel Wilson are capable backs.

Arizona has lost 10 straight to Seattle, and after selling this past week, I could see the Seahawks rolling and working on their ground game. In Week 2 against Arizona with Lock at quarterback, Seattle ran the ball 40 times and threw it 26. JSN caught 155 of Lock’s 235 yards (11 targets). Ridiculous, but we could see a similar result here in play calling, capping JSN’s production.

Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (1 unit)

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Buccaneers at Bears (-6): O/U 47.5

Baker Mayfield has had the easiest job in the NFL over the last two weeks. Mayfield has thrown 14 passes in past two games. Against Atlanta, Mayfield and the Bucs became the first quarterback/team to not complete a pass since September 29, 1974! Mayfield went 0-for-3 and we might not see that feat happen for another 50 years.

However, the good days are over. Welcome to the end times, Baker. You are in Chicago facing a white-hot Bears team with additions on the defense from trades and guys returning from injury. Mayfield won’t have the liberty of handing the ball to his talented backs like he has literally over 100 times in the last two games. I like all of Mayfield’s Overs this week, but my favorites are the attempts. Chicago leads the NFL in time of possession margin, so Mayfield will have to make his possessions count, and the Bears allow big plays through the air, so I’d expect Mayfield to take some shots downfield.

Pick: Baker Mayfield Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (1 unit)

Bills (-3) at Vikings: O/U 43.5

Carson Wentz will start for the Vikings as Kyler Murray deals with an injured hamstring. Minnesota is coming off their first loss of the season, 19-15 to the Lions. Buffalo was off a bye for a hyped up game against Baltimore, but due to two quarterback injuries, the Bills ended up routing the Ravens 36-10 in a game Buffalo never trailed. Buffalo gets two backup quarterbacks back-to-back weeks as they go for their fourth-straight win. I like the chances that happen.

Buffalo leads the NFL in points per drive (3.07), and Minnesota is first in points allowed per drive (1.18). The Bills have been involved in the highest-scoring games and the Vikings the fewest. It’s a clash of offense versus defense, but I think offense will win. Minnesota has allowed two passing touchdowns since Week 2, but they’ve played Baker Mayfield, Malik Willis, Tyler Shough, Daniel Jones, and then Jared Goff last week. I will gladly take Buffalo -3. I’d go out to -5.5.

Pick: Bills -3 (1 unit)

Week 9 Picks

1 unit: Falcons +3.5 (-120)
1 unit: Giants -3 (-110)
1 unit: Bills -3 (-115)
1 unit: Baker Mayfield Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-111)
1 unit: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 94.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
1 unit: Jordan Love Under 37.5 Pass Attempts (-101)
1 unit: Matthew Golden Under 68.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

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