The Yankees travel to Tampa Bay on Saturday to face the American League East champion Rays in the divisional round.
Fresh from a two-game sweep of the Red Sox, the Rays enter the series with their ace, Drew Rasmussen, taking the mound in Game 1.
That gives New York an especially tough opening matchup. The Yankees still face uncertainty around Aaron Judge, who is dealing with a calf strain, and a limited Giancarlo Stanton, who has been dealing with his own calf issues.
Rasmussen has a well-established advantage over the Yankees. Through his career, he is 5-2 against them with a 1.81 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 11 appearances, 10 of which have been starts.
This season, he was particularly effective, posting a 2.86 ERA in four starts against New York. His performance on Sept. 22 in the Bronx was especially striking, as he allowed just one hit and one run over 6 2/3 innings while striking out 11.
The Yankees’ most productive hitters have also struggled against him. Cody Bellinger is 4-for-17 with a .235 average, Jazz Chisholm Jr. is 2-for-14 at .143, and Ben Rice is 1-for-16 at .063 with seven strikeouts.
Further down the lineup, Anthony Volpe is hitless in 11 at-bats, while Austin Wells is 1-for-8.
The lineup concern is not just statistical; it also affects availability. Judge missed the wild-card round and remains a question mark for the ALDS because of his calf strain, while Stanton has been limited after missing much of the season with similar issues.
That combination places extra pressure on New York’s hitters in Game 1. They will need to solve one of the pitchers who has been most troublesome against them in recent years.
The clearest first-game prop angle is for Rasmussen to again keep the Yankees’ scoring low: under 2.5 earned runs is available at -289.