The USD/CAD pair resumed its decline from 1.4298 last week after being rejected at the 55‑period 4‑hour exponential moving average, now situated at 1.4035. The prevailing bias for this week remains bearish. A sustained close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3986 would set the stage for a target at the 61.8% retracement, around 1.3792. Conversely, a break above the 1.4067 resistance could shift sentiment back to the upside, potentially triggering a stronger rebound.
From a broader perspective, the recent price action suggests that the corrective bounce from 1.3480 completed at 1.4298 after reaching the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 swing at 1.4290. A sustained break below the 55‑period weekly EMA, currently at 1.3929, would confirm this scenario and indicate that the decline from 1.4791 may be resuming. In that case, a retest of the 1.3480 low would likely follow. For now, downside risk remains as long as the 1.4298 level holds.
Looking at the longer term, strong support from the 55‑period monthly EMA, now at 1.3654, reinforces the view that the uptrend originating from the 0.9056 (2007 low) is still intact. A break above 1.4791 would favor further upside at a later stage. However, a decisive breach of the 55‑period daily EMA would suggest that the five‑wave upward move has completed.
