The AFC South is shaping up to be one of the NFL’s most compelling and unpredictable divisions this season. The Houston Texans have held the division crown, but with the Jacksonville Jaguars boasting a young, rising core, can they reclaim their top spot? Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans look to disrupt the balance of power.
With quarterback Daniel Jones returning from injury and the addition of veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, the Indianapolis Colts possess the potential to make a serious playoff push. Across the division, Robert Saleh’s arrival in Tennessee signals a major rebuilding phase, putting the Titans in a prime position to act as dangerous spoilers as the season progresses.
To understand how the AFC South will unfold this season, the co-hosts of “First Things First” delivered their expert analysis. On Thursday’s broadcast, Nick Wright, Danny Parkins, and Chris Broussard went beyond general commentary to provide their definitive predictions on how the division landscape will shake out.
Nick Wright’s AFC South Prediction
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Although the Titans are entering a full rebuild under head coach Robert Saleh, Nick Wright still sees significant potential for growth. With key offensive additions like Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson, Wright believes a six-win season is well within reach for this developing squad.
“I do have them getting six wins … here’s the case for them,” Wright explained. “With Carnell Tate in the fold, and if Cam Ward takes a year or two jump, plus the possibility that Robert Saleh is actually a good head coach, they have a solid foundation.”
When evaluating expectations for the Colts, all eyes shift toward Daniel Jones and his recovery from a season-ending Achilles injury. However, Wright’s concerns are not solely focused on Jones, but rather directed squarely at head coach Shane Steichen and his ability to lead consistently.
Following a campaign that failed to meet expectations, Wright believes Steichen should be firmly on the hot seat heading into the upcoming season.
“Daniel Jones is quickly coming back from the Achilles injury, but how mobile is he actually going to be?” Wright noted. “Also, I worry about Shane Steichen, and I worry about him facing an instant hot seat if things don’t start well.”
The Jacksonville Jaguars are not an easy team to predict. After capturing 13 wins and the division title last season, they possess a core that is not only on the rise but poised to remain highly competitive for years to come.
Wright emphasized the Jaguars’ exceptional young core, specifically pointing to quarterback Trevor Lawrence and dynamic two-way standout Travis Hunter as key catalysts for their success.
“They won 13 games like last year,” Wright said. “There’s no way they don’t get at least a little more out of Travis Hunter this year. They’re not going to get less. With year two of Trevor Lawrence and Liam Coen, I like that. They have, far away, the best quarterback in that division.”
At the top of Wright’s predictions sit the Houston Texans. He highlighted that the performance of quarterback C.J. Stroud will be a massive factor in determining the team’s overall success this season.
“I think they will be fighting for the No. 1 seed all year,” Wright said. “I think they go 12-5. If C.J. Stroud is average, they can win 11 games. If he’s above average, they can win 12 games. If he’s truly good, you can argue they’re the best team in the league.”
Chris Broussard’s AFC South Prediction
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Broussard closely followed Wright’s lead in his AFC South predictions, placing the Texans at No. 1 and the Titans at the bottom. With new head coach Robert Saleh at the helm, Broussard is hoping for positive outcomes in Saleh’s inaugural season and quarterback Cam Ward’s second year as the starter.
“I hope I’m wrong. I like Cam Ward. I would really like to see him do something this year,” Broussard commented. “I’d like to see Saleh get a real chance … We’ll see, I’m pulling for him.”
For the Colts, who Broussard predicts will finish third, he struggles to believe that Indianapolis won’t repeat the same pattern this season as they did last year.
“We all remember the 8-2 start, and then one of the worst collapses in NFL history. They lost their last seven games, including their last three when Daniel Jones was healthy. Why? Because they started playing good teams,” Broussard explained.
Predicting the Jaguars in second place, Broussard acknowledged their impressive playoff run last year, but he does not see them making back-to-back postseason appearances.
“At No. 2, the Jags, but missing the playoffs,” Broussard said. “Trevor Lawrence was very good last year. Is that who he finally is? Or is he going to go back down the roller coaster? I’m not betting on a bad year, but I’m not expecting a good year.”
With the Texans topping Broussard’s list, their talented defense is a major factor in their projected success. However, the offensive talent brought by quarterback C.J. Stroud will be another key point of focus for the analyst.
“The Houston Texans are winning this division. Contrary to popular opinion, C.J. was average last year … obviously he was banged up for a few games. I expect a bounce back,” Broussard said. “I don’t know if I’m ever expecting him to be that great top-five quarterback that we thought he was going to be.”
Danny Parkins’ AFC South Prediction
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Similar to Wright and Broussard, Danny Parkins also placed the Titans in last place. Parkins did not hold back regarding the potential outlook for Tennessee under quarterback Cam Ward.
“I’d be really worried if I was a Titans fan. I love Carnell Tate, I loved it leading up to the NFL Draft,” Parkins said. “I didn’t see much of anything to believe in Cam Ward. I think they are in contention, along with the Dolphins, for the worst team in the NFL.”
Parkins mixed things up by placing the Jaguars third. While Trevor Lawrence has experienced both highs and lows throughout his NFL career, Parkins does not expect him to replicate the standard he set during last year’s impressive 13-4 campaign.
“A huge regression for the Jacksonville Jaguars,” Parkins said. “I think Trevor Lawrence cannot be trusted. Is it possible that Liam Coen unlocked it? Absolutely. … He did it with Baker, he did it with Trevor. But his whole career has been a roller-coaster. Seems like we might be ready for a big dip.”
As for Parkins’ second-place team, the Texans, the defense should not be an issue for Houston. However, the primary concern lies within C.J. Stroud at the helm of the offense.
“You have the best defense in the NFL, but defensive production year over year does fluctuate,” Parkins said. “They had remarkable defensive health last year … I don’t have evidence that C.J. Stroud is good.”
And sitting atop his AFC South predictions, Parkins believes the Colts will capture the division title. He emphasized that Indianapolis could be a dangerous team in the division if Daniel Jones is back in full physical force.
“They return four of five starters on their offensive line. … I really like their offense this year … they need to win by scoring,” Parkins said. “So if you see the best version of Daniel Jones for a full year, I think the Colts can win the AFC South.”
