Green technologies rely heavily on minerals. Electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and power grids require cobalt, lithium, copper, manganese, graphite and rare earths. The International Energy Agency reports that an electric car needs roughly six times more minerals than a comparable petrol or diesel vehicle, while a wind farm consumes about nine times more minerals than a gas‑fired plant.
As the global shift toward clean energy accelerates, demand for these minerals is surging, creating an opportunity for Africa, which holds substantial deposits of many of the required resources.
Simply possessing mineral deposits does not automatically generate industry or broad prosperity. Historically, mineral‑rich developing countries have often struggled to translate resource wealth into economic benefits.
We are researchers who study how nations build industrial bases and transform their economies. In a World Bank‑commissioned study, we examined the extent to which African countries have moved beyond extracting transition minerals to processing, refining and manufacturing components for green technologies.
Our analysis proceeded in four stages. First, we catalogued the transition minerals present in each African country. Second, we reviewed trade data to identify which nations export these minerals and where they are shipped.
Third, we assessed African participation in the green‑technology value chain, determining whether countries export raw ore or engage in processing and production of finished goods such as solar panels. Fourth, we evaluated national and regional mineral and industrial policies.
Our research identified deposits of 41 minerals across the continent, encompassing bio‑energy, electricity infrastructure, batteries, energy storage, electric vehicles, carbon capture, fuel cells, hydrogen, geothermal, heat pumps, hydropower, nuclear, solar and wind applications.
Nevertheless, most African nations continue to export transition minerals in raw or lightly processed forms, missing the chance to create higher‑value materials, components and finished products.
Consequently, African countries have a negligible footprint in the green‑technology industries that depend on these minerals, and the continent’s mineral wealth has not yet translated into significant industrial activity, well‑paid jobs, higher incomes or widespread improvements in living standards.
National and regional institutions are beginning to address these shortcomings, but most initiatives remain at an early stage.
Collective mineral strength, shallow value capture
Our study found that 48 African countries possess deposits, reserves or production of at least one transition mineral. South Africa holds 24 of the 41 minerals, while Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) each have 14.
In total, Africa accounts for roughly 96 % of global platinum‑group metal reserves, 77 % of phosphate reserves and 55 % of cobalt reserves. Phosphate and cobalt are key inputs for electric‑vehicle batteries, and platinum is essential for green‑hydrogen technologies.
Individually, however, most countries represent only a small share of global output, limiting their ability to influence buyers, attract large‑scale processing facilities, develop complete supply chains or compete with established producers elsewhere.
Trade statistics echo these conclusions. Outside of South Africa, Nigeria and the DRC, the majority of African nations export less than 1 % of each mineral globally. For minerals such as nickel, rare earths, silver and lithium, the continent’s five largest exporters together supply less than 10 % of world demand.
African countries could improve their market position by coordinating trade policies rather than acting independently. Mining licences are held by private firms, but extraction permissions do not always grant unrestricted export rights, giving governments some scope to align trade rules. Further study is needed on how such coordination would interact with existing company rights and whether industry consent is required.
A further weakness highlighted in our study is the limited local processing of minerals. Only a few nations—South Africa, the DRC, Zambia and Zimbabwe—engage in appreciable processing, which typically consists of crushing and concentrating ore rather than fabricating finished products.
This gap imposes significant costs on African economies. For example, Congolese cobalt can be sold at the extraction stage for US$5.80 per kilogram, but after local refining the price rises to US$16.20 per kilogram, nearly tripling its value.
A green economy built on old dependencies
Asia, led by China, is the primary importer of 16 African minerals, purchasing over 30 % of those exports on average and ranking as the second‑largest buyer for six other transition minerals.
Our analysis shows that China absorbs more than 40 % of Africa’s annual mineral ore exports, confirming a recurring pattern in which the continent supplies raw materials while other regions add value through manufacturing.
The history of Africa, plus low levels of industrialisation, keeps African nations largely absent from green‑technology value chains. Between 2017 and 2023, Africa’s share of global patents for the technologies examined remained below 0.4 %, and its export share was under 1 % in every category. The continent presently participates in the green economy chiefly as a consumer rather than a producer.
African governments are asserting agency
We also observed that African governments are revising mining legislation, imposing export restrictions, acquiring ownership stakes and forging cross‑border partnerships to capture more value from their resources. The aim is to boost on‑site processing, attract investment, create jobs and retain income within the region. While most reforms are undertaken unilaterally, some collaborative efforts are emerging.
Acting alone, however, has clear limits. Many countries supply insufficient volumes to sway large international buyers, and if one nation demands higher prices or local processing, purchasers can source elsewhere.
Additionally, numerous African states lack reliable electricity, affordable financing, adequate transport infrastructure and a skilled workforce needed for mineral processing and component manufacturing.
What needs to happen next
Africa’s mineral endowment is substantial, but deeper regional cooperation is essential to transform resource presence into industrial capability. A related study, Integrating Africa: From Threads to Hubs, argues that pooling supplies, markets, infrastructure and expertise could lower costs and strengthen the continent’s negotiating power with global firms. A shared processing hub serving multiple countries would also advance this goal.
To realize this vision, African finance and mineral institutions, together with national governments, must agree on common priorities and harmonized rules for mineral processing and environmental management.
Development finance can support this agenda. Regional development banks and other African financiers could fund shared electricity, transport and mineral‑processing infrastructure, while universities and businesses develop the technical skills required by emerging industries.
Partnerships with foreign governments and companies should extend beyond extraction and export. They must include commitments to increase local processing, transfer technology and know‑how, train workers and help domestic firms become suppliers to new green‑industry sectors.
Gideon Ndubuisi, Assistant Professor of Economics, Delft University of Technology
Elvis Korku Avenyo, Associate professor, University of Johannesburg
Solomon Owusu, Assistant Professor of Global Economic Policy, Boston University
Woubet Kassa, Economist, American University
