Amazon and Alphabet: Established Tech Giants Positioned to Gain from Anthropic’s IPO Trajectory

Key Points

On June 1, artificial intelligence startup Anthropic confirmed it had privately submitted a draft registration statement for an initial public offering to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This moves the company closer to a public listing, potentially occurring before the end of 2026.

For retail investors, this development will eventually allow ownership in the firm behind Claude, one of the market’s most sophisticated AI models. However, given the post-IPO price volatility seen in Space Technologies Exploration shares, some investors may be wary of buying into a newly listed company. While they acknowledge Anthropic’s growth potential, they may prefer to mitigate risk.

One strategy that could offer a solution is to invest in well-established tech companies that already hold stakes in Anthropic, such as Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL).

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Amazon Secures a Stake and Potential $100 Billion in Revenue

Amazon has been a financial backer of Anthropic for several years. Prior to a new investment agreement in April, it had already committed $8 billion to the startup. In April, Amazon expanded its commitment by investing an additional $5 billion immediately, with provisions for up to $20 billion more contingent on Anthropic hitting specific milestones.

The earlier stake was valued at $74 billion in April, indicating substantial unrealized gains for Amazon. Its recent $5 billion infusion also looks advantageous given Anthropic’s rapid ascent in valuation—from $380 billion in April to $965 billion by the May financing round.

Beyond equity, Amazon stands to gain as a customer of Anthropic. Over the next decade, Anthropic intends to spend more than $100 billion on Amazon Web Services (AWS) infrastructure.

Alphabet’s Growing Interest in Anthropic

Alphabet first invested in Anthropic in 2023, acquiring a 10% stake for roughly $300 million. Several months later, it added $2 billion, increasing its ownership to about 14%.

In April, Alphabet disclosed a plan to invest up to $40 billion, with $10 billion immediate and $30 billion pending performance milestones.

Additionally, Alphabet partners with Anthropic by offering Claude via Google Cloud and provides expanded compute capacity to the startup.

The Benefits of Investing in Established Tech Giants

Anthropic’s revenue is scaling quickly; second-quarter sales are projected at $10.9 billion, more than double the $4.8 billion reported in the first quarter. Should this materialize, it would mark a profitable quarter for the startup.

Despite the upside, Anthropic carries risks including intensifying competition, rising infrastructure costs, and a valuation that may prove unsustainable. Consequently, some investors might prefer exposure via Amazon and Alphabet.

Both giants are mature enterprises, less prone to the sharp fluctuations expected in Anthropic’s early public trading. Their diversified operations mean they do not depend solely on Anthropic’s outcome.

If Anthropic thrives, Amazon and Alphabet gain from direct stakes and commercial partnerships. Importantly, each has structured investments with milestone-based tranches, limiting downside.

If Anthropic underperforms, the impact on the tech giants would be painful but not existential, whereas a standalone investment would be wholly exposed. The reward profile may be smaller, but the risk is buffered.

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