Archer Aviation Shares Plummet 62% From Peak; What Catalysts Could Fuel a Recovery?

Key Points

• The stock is down about 62% from its $14.62 October high.

• Increased share count means a return to that price would imply a valuation above $11 billion.

• United Airlines’ conditional order for up to 200 aircraft hinges on certification of the Midnight e‑VTOL.

Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) peaked at $14.62 in October 2023. A $10,000 investment at that price would have bought roughly 684 shares. Trading near $5.60 today, those shares are worth about $3,800—a roughly 62% decline in less than a year.

Despite the falling share price, the company’s operations have continued to expand. Flight‑test activity has increased and Archer has advanced to the final phase of the FAA’s four‑step certification process for its Midnight electric aircraft.

The market’s valuation appears to reflect the uncertainty of generating revenue. Investors are waiting for three key milestones before a meaningful price recovery: the FAA type certificate for Midnight, the first commercial fare revenues, and the conversion of airline orders into firm deliveries.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

The old high now means a bigger company

Returning to the $14.62 level would require a roughly 160% gain from current prices. Because Archer has issued additional shares, a reclaim of that price now implies a market capitalization exceeding $11 billion, compared with the roughly $9.5 billion valuation at the peak.

Share count has risen from about 549 million in May 2023 to roughly 770 million today—a 18% increase. The company’s August acquisition of Boeing’s Insitu adds new assets and a Boeing equity stake, though management expects cash burn to remain stable.

Adjusted EBITDA losses have widened, reaching $177 million in the most recent quarter and projected near $200 million for the next. Archer’s cash position stands around $1.6 billion, providing runway while dilution continues.

Which milestone moves the stock?

Progress through FAA certification phases has had limited impact on the share price this year. Archer reached Phase 3 in May, yet the stock did not rally, suggesting that incremental regulatory steps are already priced in.

Revenue milestones, however, have sparked stronger reactions. When Archer announced the United Airlines deal and associated revenue forecasts in August, the shares rose about 25%, indicating that the market rewards actual sales over procedural advances.

The type certificate remains the most critical catalyst for large investors, as United’s conditional order cannot be converted without it. Routine commercial service in the U.S. also hinges on FAA approval.

Order conversion comes last

First‑fare revenue is likely the nearest catalyst. Archer aims for passenger operations in 2026 and plans to begin service later this year under a federal pilot program, though current revenue derives mainly from airport operations at Hawthorne.

Formal certification (Phase 4) is underway, but management has not provided a definitive timeline for the type certificate.

United’s conditional purchase order for up to 200 aircraft, valued at up to $1 billion plus a $500 million option, is the furthest‑out driver. Only $10 million of pre‑delivery payment has been received, and conversion depends on both certification and scaled production. Full order fulfillment would generate the revenue scale needed to justify a valuation above $11 billion.

Thus, a return to the previous $14.62 price will likely require all three milestones—certification, revenue generation, and order conversion—with the latter being the ultimate value‑creator.

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