Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and their key dialogue partners are gathering in Manila this week against a volatile international backdrop. Escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran threaten to dominate the agenda, adding a layer of global uncertainty to a region already contending with maritime disputes in the South China Sea and a stalled peace process in Myanmar.
The 11-member bloc’s meeting takes place as the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict raises alarms over energy security, particularly the safe passage of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside broader risks to inflation and global economic growth. Philippine spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial confirmed the Middle East crisis is expected to feature prominently, noting ministers will have several opportunities to address the “very, very critical topic.”
Yet the diplomatic gathering must also confront pressing challenges closer to home. Long-standing tensions in the South China Sea remain unresolved as ASEAN and China continue negotiations on a Code of Conduct. Meanwhile, the bloc’s flagship peace initiative for Myanmar has struggled to gain traction five years after a military coup plunged the nation into a civil war estimated to have claimed 100,000 lives. An informal consultation on the Myanmar crisis is scheduled for July 22.
Adding geopolitical weight to the proceedings, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi are both slated to attend in the coming days, with a potential bilateral meeting on the sidelines. Representatives from India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union will also participate in the ASEAN-led forum.
