AUD/USD Holds Near 0.6900 as Mixed U.S. Data and Await Trade Balance Keep Market Cautious

AUD/USD dipped to 0.6900 on Wednesday and is now trading with caution as investors weigh mixed U.S. economic data. The recent ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated continued expansion in factory activity, while ADP private payroll figures suggested a slower pace of hiring.

The June U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 53.3, down from 54.0 in May, missing expectations for a stable reading. Nevertheless, the index stayed above the 50.0 mark, signalling that the manufacturing sector has expanded for a sixth straight month. New orders fell to 56.0 from 56.8, and the Prices Paid Index dropped to 73.0 from 82.1, indicating that input costs have cooled but remain high.

The U.S. dollar initially gained support as manufacturing activity stayed in expansion territory. However, its gains were capped after the ADP National Employment Report showed private payrolls increased by 98,000 in June, below the 118,000 forecast and lower than the 122,000 increase recorded in May.

The weaker ADP figure heightened caution ahead of the official U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, as investors gauge whether the labor market is cooling enough to influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance. For AUD/USD, the mixed data leaves the pair balancing a resilient U.S. economy against emerging signs of slower job growth.

Focus now shifts to Australia’s upcoming Trade Balance release on Thursday. The country posted a goods trade surplus of A$1.8 billion in April, rebounding from March’s unexpected deficit. The improvement was led by stronger resource exports, particularly iron ore and coal, while imports rose modestly by 0.8 % month‑on‑month.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the 4‑hour chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6903, sitting just above the 20‑period Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.6895 yet well below the 100‑period SMA at 0.6980, which caps the broader outlook. The pair is currently consolidating around the 0.6903 level, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 49, suggesting balanced momentum after recovering from oversold conditions.

Upside resistance begins at 0.6916, followed by a stronger cap near 0.6930, with the 100‑period SMA at 0.6980 representing a higher hurdle that would need to be breached to reignite a sustained bullish move. On the support side, the 20‑period SMA around 0.6895 provides immediate backing, while a horizontal floor at 0.6882 lies further down; a break below this level could trigger additional weakness.

This technical analysis was produced with assistance from an AI tool.

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