The Bureau of Meteorology says forecasts point to a strong-to-very-strong El Niño event.
Published On 16 Jun 2026
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that an El Niño weather pattern has formed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen through the second half of the year, potentially becoming one of the strongest events recorded since 1950.
In a statement on Tuesday, the bureau said sea surface temperatures in the region had crossed El Niño thresholds, while atmospheric indicators also pointed to the onset of the phenomenon.
“Forecasts are pointing towards a strong to very strong El Nino event, based on the extent of warming in the central tropical Pacific,” it said.
“Around half of the models indicate this event could peak at levels among the highest observed since 1950.”
Forecasters expect the pattern to bring heavier-than-usual rainfall across parts of the Americas and hotter, drier conditions across Asia, where crop planting is already under strain, raising concerns about global food supplies.
The bureau said El Niño is typically linked to reduced winter and spring rainfall in Australia, especially along the eastern coast, while also pushing up daytime temperatures in the south.
The pattern is particularly significant for Australia because it can disrupt agricultural output in a country that is among the world’s major exporters of wheat, sugar and beef.
Researchers have warned that climate change could intensify the impacts of this year’s El Niño, increasing the risks of heat, drought and rainfall disruption.
Australia’s previous El Niño, from 2023 to 2024, brought the driest three-month period on record. An earlier strong event in 2015 and 2016 triggered widespread drought and reduced oilseed and grain production.
Historical research links severe El Niño episodes, including those in 1877 and 1878, to famines that killed millions of people.
According to the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño is marked by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific and usually occurs every two to seven years, lasting about nine to 12 months.
In a June 2 report, the WMO said there was an “80 percent likelihood of an El Nino event during June-August 2026″.
“Probabilities for this to continue until at least November are near or above 90 percent,” it said, adding that the pattern was expected to affect global temperature and rainfall patterns and increase the risk of extreme weather.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also warned in a video message after the report that the world must treat the development as “the urgent climate warning it is”.
“The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” he said.
