Belmont Park’s Dwyer Stakes Preview: Ted Noffey Leads at 8-5

Ted Noffey proved highly successful as a two‑year‑old, winning four of his four starts, including Grade 1 triumphs in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. That flawless record made him the early winter favorite for the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1).

Trainer Todd Pletcher hoped to secure his third Kentucky Derby victory and was evaluating the Holy Bull Stakes (Grade 3) and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (Grade 2) at Gulfstream as potential prep races. The colt, a son of Into Mischief, entered the Derby Future Wager as the 6‑1 second‑choice at 7‑2 odds. However, Pletcher withdrew the entry in late January due to bone bruising, forfeiting the associated wager.

Even a horse that is not in training can still cost you money.

Dwyer Stakes Odds: Ted Noffey and Sea Strike Lead the Market

Ted Noffey will make his anticipated return Saturday in the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes, a one‑turn mile race at Belmont Park. He is the sole graded‑stakes winner in a field of ten and is listed as the 8‑5 morning‑line favorite.

Pletcher’s historical performance after extended layoffs is strong; if Noffey reproduces his two‑year‑old form, his three‑year‑old debut should succeed. He has been conditioning steadily for three months, and his recent three workouts at Belmont’s training track were impressive, highlighted by a 5‑furlong breeze in 1:01 2/5 on October 24.

“We’ve prepared him as fit as possible without racing him,” said Stu Hampson, Pletcher’s New York‑based assistant. “The rest is up to him. He has only been breezed on the training track, yet we are pleased with his progress. He appears to be approaching the form of the champion two‑year‑old he was last year. We simply hope he performs as expected in the afternoon.”

On paper, Sea Strike, trained by Chad Brown, is his principal rival. He generated excitement for the Travers Stakes (Grade 1) with a commanding 8¼‑length victory in the listed Curlin Stakes. Listed at 2‑1, Sea Strike was lowered to 7‑2 for the Travers but finished sixth after pressing the early pace.

Sea Strike has not competed since the Travers, where he fell short of Brown’s pre‑race expectations. “I think the horse has a strong chance,” he said. “He posts fast figures, is very talented, and possesses many favorable attributes.”

He may not be suited to a 10‑furlong distance, so a return to a one‑turn mile could be advantageous.

Potential Longshot Contenders

Other possibilities include Bravaro (15‑1), Overtime Rules (15‑1), and Igniter (6‑1). Bravaro, a New York‑bred trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., has recorded a win and a second in one‑turn mile races. Overtime Rules, conditioned by Arnaud Delacour, captured a wire‑to‑wire victory over 7 furlongs at Keeneland.

Igniter faced a rough trip in the 1 ⅛‑mile Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 1), becoming bumped at the start and subsequently steadied before finishing fifth. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. is returning him to a mile, a distance where he is 2‑for‑2.

“I look forward to running him here,” Dutrow said. “This will be another very tough spot, but he is in fantastic shape.”

If Noffey is about 80 % of his former self, the other contenders will be aiming to achieve the exacta.

Our Picks: 1 Ted Noffey, 2 Sea Strike, 3 Overtime Rules

The Field for the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (Rail Out, Jockey, Trainer, Odds):

1. Bravaro (Paco Lopez, Saffie Joseph, Jr.) – 15‑1

2. Overtime Rules (Samy Marin, Arnaud Delacour) – 15‑1

3. Stimulate (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott) – 6‑1

4. White Smoke Rising (Kendrick Carmouche, Charlton Baker) – 20‑1

5. Stop the Car (Dylan Davis, Brendah Walsh) – 20‑1

6. Ted Noffey (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher) – 8‑5

7. Decisive Win (Antonio Fresu, Doug O’Neill) – 15‑1

8. Igniter (Manny Franco, Rick Dutrow Jr.) – 8‑1

9. Sea Strike (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown) – 2‑1

10. Mailata (Mychel Sanchez, Butch Reid Jr.) – 30‑1

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