Bitcoin (BTC) fell 1.9% over the past 24 hours on Monday, trading near $74,239 and breaking below the psychologically critical $75,000 mark. The decline brings the $74,400 support level into sharp focus as traders weigh the risk of a deeper market correction.
Weakening on-chain profitability and bearish weekly indicators have heightened concerns that BTC could test lower levels toward $70,000.
Can Buyers Hold the $74,400 Floor?
Derivatives analytics platform CoinGlass recently flagged $74,400 as a key level for BTC, warning on X that a sustained breakdown beneath it would confirm a bearish bias.
With BTC price hovering right near this boundary, buyers must step in to defend the current market structure. A failure to hold $74,400 could open the floodgates for accelerated spot selling.
On-Chain Profitability Begins to Narrow
On-chain analytics reveal a cautious backdrop. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that Bitcoin started the week trading below its one-year median of $77,000.
According to Adler’s analysis, Bitcoin fell 4.4%, from $78K to $74K, between November 1 and 8. Since November 5, it has remained below its 365-day median of $77K, trading between that level and the 25th percentile of $67K.
Adjusted MVRV also declined from 1.075 to 1.047, meaning the average unrealized profit for coins younger than seven years narrowed from 7.5% to 4.7%.
As long as MVRV remains above 1, this group is still in unrealized profit. A drop below 1 would signal unrealized losses.
Adler emphasizes that $77,000 is the key resistance to reclaim. Until Bitcoin regains that median, it remains trapped in a lower range bound by its 25th percentile support at $67,000.
Technical Indicators Hint at Further Downside
Technical charts align with the cautious on-chain picture. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows pointed on X out that Bitcoin recently closed its fifth consecutive red weekly candle while slipping below its 50-week moving average.
Pillows warned that failing to quickly reclaim this key moving average makes a drop toward $70,000 highly probable—representing an additional 5% to 6% downside from current prices.
Why This Matters
Whether Bitcoin price can hold $74,400 and climb back above its $77,000 one-year median will be an important sign of whether selling pressure is easing. If the decline continues and on-chain profitability weakens further, $70,000 could become the next major battleground for bulls.
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