Bitcoin Surges 8.7% in Best Day Since March, Flipping Prediction Markets to a Toss-Up

Bitcoin ripped higher Wednesday, surging as much as 8.7% to an intraday peak of $69,749. The move marked the steepest one-day advance since March 4 and pushed the asset to its highest level since June 1, delivering a green candle the likes of which traders had not seen in over five months.

The catalyst appeared to stem from traditional markets rather than crypto-native developments. The U.S. Treasury announced plans to at least double its long-bond buybacks, increasing the operation size from $2 billion to $4 billion starting September 9. The news pressured long-end yields lower and weakened the dollar, a dynamic that typically benefits risk assets by loosening financial conditions. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while a softer dollar makes dollar-denominated assets cheaper for international buyers—a combination analysts have dubbed “QE Lite.”

Here Comes QE Lite: Yields, Dollar Tumble, Gold Spikes After Treasury Unexpectedly Doubles Size Of Long-End Treasury Buybacks

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 19, 2026

The macro tailwind coincided with a White House meeting between crypto executives and regulators, alongside a fresh SEC proposal to ease registration rules for certain digital-asset offerings. The confluence sparked a violent short squeeze. CoinGlass data showed $1.14 billion in crypto shorts liquidated in a single hour, with Bitcoin accounting for $677.64 million of that total. Crypto-equity names followed suit: Strategy (MSTR) jumped nearly 12%, Coinbase rose 9%, and Circle and BitMine each gained roughly 9-10%.

Prediction Markets Scramble to Catch Up

Few participants anticipated the 폭주, and prediction markets are reflecting the shock. On Myriad—a prediction market operated by Decrypt’s parent company—traders had favored a decline to $55,000 over a rally to $84,000 by roughly 70% to 30% just days ago. By Wednesday afternoon, those odds had collapsed to a near coin flip: 51.9% on the downside versus 48.1% on the upside.

The recalibration wasn’t isolated to Myriad. Polymarket’s flagship 2026 Bitcoin price market recently priced a 56% probability of BTC touching $55,000 before year-end against just 51% odds of a run to $75,000. On Kalshi, traders were even more cautious, assigning a 54% chance of clearing $67,500 in August and only 31% odds on $70,000—both levels Bitcoin shattered during Wednesday’s session.

The divergence tells the story. Near-term predictors were caught flat-footed by a 7% surge they had not priced in, while longer-dated markets barely budged. Prediction markets have been setting volume records as more traders use them to hedge actual positions, making Wednesday’s Myriad flip less of a forecast and more of a real-time recap of who got squeezed.

The next technical line in the sand sits at $70,284, the lower bound of a resistance band on Bitcoin’s chart. A daily close above that level opens the door toward $73,245; a retreat below $68,000 would pull price back into the range that has trapped it since June.

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