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A prominently monitored on-chain indicator has shifted to “altcoin season,” though the opposite is true: alternative coins are not rallying, while Bitcoin’s selloff deepens. Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal, which exceeds 50 when alts outperform Bitcoin, now sits at 86. This surge reflects Bitcoin’s sharp decline rather than altcoins gaining strength.
[@portabletext/react] Unknown block type “image”, specify a component for it in the `components.types` propThe signal measures relative performance, meaning alts can appear bullish either by rising or by falling less than Bitcoin. This instance marks the second scenario: after nearly two years of depreciation, alts have depleted sellers and stabilized, while Bitcoin has plummeted, retreating to approximately $63,600 per CoinDesk data. As Glassnode notes, “Bitcoin is still doing most of the work.”
A genuine altcoin season involves capital rotating into smaller tokens as they appreciate. This situation is a hollow proxy, where the signal turns bullish for alts merely because Bitcoin is weakening—a bearish dynamic for broader market health.
Until alts initiate organic growth independent of Bitcoin’s decline, the index primarily reveals Bitcoin’s fragility rather than underlying demand for alternatives.