Black Swan Capitalist Co-Founder Urges Patience, Citing XRP’s Two-Year Consolidation Before Historic 119,000% Rally

XRP spent roughly two years in a tight consolidation phase before embarking on a historic rally during the 2017–2018 market cycle.

Vandell Aljarrah, co-founder of Black Swan Capitalist, highlighted this precedent in a recent post on X, using it to caution investors against losing conviction during extended periods of market stagnation. Aljarrah emphasized that XRP’s price history serves as a potent reminder of how prolonged consolidation can set the stage for a major expansion phase.

“Losing patience during market stagnation is a novice mistake,” Aljarrah wrote. He recalled how XRP traded sideways for approximately two years before executing a 62,000% macro expansion in 2017 and 2018.

XRP’s Historic Rally in Context

The accompanying weekly XRP/USD chart illustrates the extended trading range that preceded the breakout. XRP spent roughly 742 days consolidating between the $0.004 and $0.011 levels before breaking out in 2017 and eventually reaching its cycle peak in January 2018. The chart’s measurement underscores the magnitude of the subsequent advance, logging a 630x price gain.

Aljarrah Revises Rally Estimate to 119,000%

Aljarrah’s post sparked a debate regarding the precise magnitude of XRP’s historic gains. One commenter suggested the rally was closer to 64,000%, measuring from approximately $0.006 to the all-time high of $3.84. Aljarrah countered that the percentage depends heavily on the chosen starting point and the exchange data referenced.

He argued that measuring from XRP’s 2014 cycle lows to the January 2018 peak yields a substantially larger gain of approximately 119,000%.

Depends where you measure it from exactly, and what exchange you’re looking at. If you measure from the cycle lows of 2014 to the cycle high in Jan 2018 it was actually a 119,000% move up.

— Vandell | Black Swan Capitalist (@vandell33) October 20, 2026

Skepticism Over Historical Repeatability

Not all observers agreed that XRP’s previous trajectory offers a reliable template for the current market cycle. One critic contended that today’s cryptocurrency landscape differs significantly from the 2017–2018 environment, citing the outsized influence of market makers and alleged corruption as factors that diminish the likelihood of a repeat performance.

Another commentator questioned XRP’s long-term value proposition, arguing that its previous ascent from fractions of a cent to several dollars has not translated into comparable subsequent appreciation.

These objections underscore broader doubts about whether past price patterns can reliably forecast future performance given the market’s structural evolution.

XRP is currently trading at $1.34, up 2.6% over the past 24 hours according to CoinMarketCap data. At this level, the asset remains approximately 65% below its previous peak of $3.84. A 62,000% increase from current prices would imply a target near $832—a figure most analysts consider unrealistic in the near term, though some view it as a theoretical possibility over a multi-decade horizon.

Ultimately, Aljarrah’s thesis rests on the principle that patience is essential during protracted periods of limited price action, as recovery phases may eventually follow. For context, XRP recorded a surge of nearly 700% during the 2024–2025 market cycle.

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