Bosnia’s Election Overshadowed by Pro‑Russian Separatist Amid Renewed Ethnic Tensions

SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina — SARAJEVO, Bosnia-Herzegovina (AP) — Voters head to the polls on Sunday for a general election, with many Bosnians concerned about daily livelihoods as certain politicians revive wartime divisions that have lingered since the 1992‑95 war.

When voting begins at 7 a.m. local time, roughly 3.4 million Bosnians will elect the three‑member presidency, parliamentary representatives, and the leaders of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska.

This intricate institutional framework was established by the U.S.–brokered peace accord that brought the war to a close.

At the forefront of the race stands a staunchly pro‑Russian figure who, although absent from the ballot, has dominated the campaign and heightened divisions, raising worries of renewed instability.

Milorad Dodik, the separatist nationalist and former president of the Serb‑majority Republika Srpska, is barred from public office after a conviction for defying rulings by the international supervisor of the 1995 peace deal.

Having just returned from Moscow, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats is poised to capture the vote in Republika Srpska.

At his party’s final election rally on Friday night in Banja Luka, the administrative capital of Republika Srpska, Dodik told supporters that Bosnia “is dead.”

“It is an impossible country; it makes no sense,” Dodik declared at the rally, which was also attended by Igor Khalabukov, Russia’s ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Analyst Dragan Bursac noted that, although Dodik is absent from the ballot for the first time in almost three decades, “he remains in charge; he is everywhere.”

“He dominates the media—not just in Republika Srpska but across Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is clear that the bans on his political activity are ineffective, and he is exploiting them,” Bursac added.

Although Bosnia has enjoyed relative peace in recent years, its leaders continue to perpetuate the split between Bosniaks—predominantly Muslim—and Serbs and Croats. Bosnian Serb leaders such as Dodik advocate separating their entity from the rest of the country, a move that worries Western officials who fear a resurgence of tension.

As one of Europe’s poorest nations, Bosnia continues to grapple with the aftermath of the 1992 war, which began when it declared independence from the Serb‑led Yugoslavia and ethnic Serbs took up arms to form their own state and align with Serbia.

The conflict claimed over 100,000 lives and displaced millions.

Bosnia has formally applied for EU membership, yet progress remains stalled despite EU attempts to persuade the country’s divided leaders to cooperate on reforms.

Ahead of election day, Sarajevo resident Durak Miler remarked that governing politicians “just poison people when they talk.”

“We need to replace the old guard,” he said. “They have held power for 35 years… I believe the next leaders will serve retirees and the poor more effectively.”

Recent public tributes in Serbia and among Bosnian Serbs to wartime army commander Ratko Mladić—who died in late August while serving a life sentence for genocide and other war crimes—have reopened Bosnia’s wartime wounds.

Bosnian Serbs continue to regard Mladić as a hero, even though a UN court convicted him of the Srebrenica massacre of over 8,000 Muslim men and boys in 1995 and other atrocities.

Prominent Bosnian Serb officials attended Mladić’s funeral in Belgrade, an event that drew sharp criticism from the EU and provoked Bosniak politicians.

In a notable reform, Bosnian authorities will, for the first time, employ electronic voter identification and ballot scanning to deter irregularities and organized manipulation that have undermined confidence in past elections.

Salko Bijavica of Mostar welcomed the change, saying he is pleased that “every vote will be counted” and that it offers “hope that elections will be fair.”

Most of the 75 parties contesting the election are organized along ethnic lines within the Serb‑dominated Republika Srpska and the Bosniak‑Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which are linked by the central presidency and parliament.

The Bosniak‑nationalist Party of Democratic Action has centered its campaign on preserving Bosnia’s unity in the face of Serb separatism, while Bosnian Croats largely back their own ethnic parties, including the Bosnian wing of Croatia’s ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union.

Polls will close at 7 p.m. local time.

Many disillusioned citizens contend that politicians resort to nationalism to sidestep pressing issues like low living standards and the youth exodus.

Ivan Šilić of Mostar observed, “I don’t see any improvement since I began voting.”

“We all know who lives well,” he said. “It is better for the politicians, while the rest of us see no change.”

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