Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Election Kicks Off as Lula and Bolsonaro Neck-and-Neck in Polls

Voting opened on Sunday in Brazil’s presidential race, with incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva bidding for a fourth non‑consecutive term and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro aiming to sustain the right‑wing populist legacy begun by his father, Jair Bolsonaro.

Polls suggest a close contest, indicating that neither candidate is poised to surpass the 50 % threshold needed to avoid a runoff, which would be scheduled for October 25.

Lula and Bolsonaro concluded their campaign efforts on Saturday in São Paulo, Brazil’s economic powerhouse.

Lula vows to ‘defeat the far-right’

The 80‑year‑old Lula wrapped up his campaign with a tour of São Paulo, pledging to “defeat the far‑right.”

Organizers reported that roughly 150,000 Lula supporters attended the rally in Brazil’s largest city.

Lula’s campaign centers on extending his Workers’ Party platform, which includes welfare initiatives, state‑driven development and income redistribution.

He said while casting his ballot on Sunday, “The people must decide between upholding democracy and descending into barbarism, between progress and regression.”

Bolsonaro calls for ‘change’

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has been a Liberal Party senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. On Saturday he led a motorcycle parade through the São Paulo countryside towns of Santa Bárbara d’Oeste and Americana.

He also raised a portrait of his father as the crowd chanted “mito,” the Portuguese term for “legend” used by Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters.

The right‑wing Bolsonaro has campaigned on stringent security measures and tax cuts, blaming Lula for the high cost of living and labeling him “incompetent.”

He said while casting his vote, “Brazil needs change,” adding, “The country cannot endure further suffering—high taxes and the killing of many women.”

Brazil’s 2022 election rematch

The elder Bolsonaro is serving a 27‑year prison sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss to Lula, and Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to pardon his father if he wins.

Lula’s team frames the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to national sovereignty, citing Flávio and Jair’s connections with former US President Donald Trump, who imposed a 50 % tariff on Brazilian goods last year after Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial, which Trump denounced as a “witch hunt.”

In interviews, the younger Bolsonaro describes himself as “more moderate” than his father, though he still regards him as “my compass, my point of reference.”

Both Bolsonaros share similar stances on relaxed gun‑control laws and skepticism toward human‑driven climate change.

Trump has not endorsed the senator, but said he is monitoring the election “very closely.”

What happens next?

Brazil is politically polarized, and the campaign has grown bitter, with online operatives from each side exploiting every gaffe, accusation or rumor to rapidly produce polished videos or AI‑generated images for social media.

In September it emerged that Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion linked to the financing of a biopic about his father; he denies any wrongdoing.

Who is Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro?

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The latest poll for the first round shows Lula at 46 % and Bolsonaro at 45 %, according to Brazilian data‑intelligence and public‑opinion firm Quaest, as reported by Reuters.

Should a runoff be required, the same Quaest survey puts Lula at 42 % and Bolsonaro at 44 %.

In the 2022 election, Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by a margin of just 1.8 percentage points.

Besides the presidential race, Brazil’s 160 million registered voters are also selecting legislators, governors and certain senators.

Brazil election: Lula, Bolsonaro focus on women’s vote

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