Cardano (ADA) appears to be forming a 5-wave advance from the August 31 lows, according to the latest Elliott Wave-based technical analysis. The pullback from $0.24 has kept Cardano bulls on guard as geopolitics-infused sideways market movements continue to rattle the fragile price setup.
Elliott Waves Decipher Cardano’s Long-Run Potential
According to More Crypto Online, the initial rejection at the $0.228–$0.241 resistance level can flip into support if the support bubble at $0.197–$0.214 holds. The theory now hints at the next wave being the most drastic one in terms of length: Wave 3 typically provides the strongest impulse out of the first, third, and fifth waves.
$ADA is showing a setup on the smaller timeframe
ADA: ADA has formed a possible 5-wave advance from the August 31 low, creating a bullish 1-2 setup despite the rejection from the $0.228–$0.241 resistance zone.
Leading Scenario: Holding $0.197–$0.214 keeps the direct bullish 1-2… pic.twitter.com/lAsAtZiSWo
— More Crypto Online (@Morecryptoonl) September 9, 2026
The leading scenario provided by the seasoned technical chart analyst suggests that, by Elliott Wave counts, Cardano’s Wave 3 could take the OG altcoin towards $0.28. Conversely, there is a chance of a downward slope to roughly $0.157–$0.188, an area where buyers tend to step in.
The 1-2 bullish setup remains highly dependent on whether Cardano (ADA) price can smoothly retest the resistance cluster between $0.22 and $0.24. Based on Elliott Wave theory, the third wave tends to be the most volatile in terms of price movement before a pullback on the fourth wave.
ADA Derivatives & BBP Metrics Tell a Different Story
Other on-chain metrics painted a more fragile picture. Cardano’s (ADA) SuperTrend price hovered fractures of a cent below the actual price of $0.21. The Smoothed Moving Average (SMA) still floated slightly higher at $0.2144, while big-time investors were mixed in sentiment about calling the bottom.
Considering retail sentiment, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) has shifted toward bearish, meaning more coin distribution is happening in the red zone. A similar market mood in mid-August saw Cardano’s bulls fixating around the $0.17 support before the 7-day spike to $0.24.
Reaching further, Cardano’s (ADA) bulls might have a hard time attacking the quarterly highs of $0.28 without stronger conviction from the leveraged markets. Daily Derivatives data now hints at Cardano (ADA) racking up $650 million in 24 hours on Futures, but long Cardano price plays are the ones getting liquidated due to excessive leverage.
Judging the real-time CoinGlass data on Cardano’s price, the altcoin whipped up 15% gains in daily trading volume, but the long liquidations accounted for $2.42 million out of $2.51 million. The overall long-versus-short futures ratio is now also slightly angled towards the short-sellers, but Cardano’s bulls on Binance and OKX are aggressively placing upward plays.