Counterpressure: Washington’s Economic Squeeze Meets Its Adversaries’ Resistance

Welcome to The Adversarial. Every other week, we’ll provide expert analysis on America’s greatest challengers: China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and jihadist groups. Read on for the latest insights.

Iran

U.S. strikes targeting Iranian soil diminished in August following a series of frequent exchanges throughout July. The apparent pause reflects a strategic shift toward intensifying economic pressure rather than continued military degradation. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described a combined approach — a physical blockade of Iran’s maritime trade coupled with expanded sanctions — as unprecedented in the history of economic isolation against a nation. The resulting disruption in oil sales and other exports will compound financial strain on an economy already weakened before the conflict began. The United Arab Emirates’ Aug. 19 announcement suspending trade and financial ties with Iran marks a potentially significant escalation in the pressure campaign.

However, these measures risk provoking a counterresponse from the regime, including additional attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and possible renewed strikes against U.S. assets and allies. President Donald Trump recently dismissed the prospect of negotiations, stating that no talks are “going on, or scheduled.” Should that posture hold and maritime traffic through the strait fail to recover, the standoff is likely to devolve into a prolonged contest of economic endurance between Tehran and Washington.

North Korea

North Korea issued a series of statements protesting the U.S.-South Korean Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercises. Such reactions are common preceding large-scale joint drills. One day before Ulchi Freedom Shield was set to commence, President Trump ordered [a corresponding action] via a Truth Social post.

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