English schools brace for surge in special‑needs support as EHCP applications projected to double

Across England, schools and local authorities anticipate that the share of children with special educational needs plans will rise to roughly one in ten as families accelerate applications to lock in support ahead of upcoming ministerial reforms.

School leaders have described an unprecedented spike in demand for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs), which provide statutory support for conditions ranging from speech and learning difficulties to autism and ADHD. In 2025, only about 5% of school‑age pupils—around one in 20—held an EHCP.

The headcount of pupils with EHCPs has grown by over 11% year‑on‑year for the past two years. Forecasts compiled by local authorities and reviewed by the Guardian suggest that double‑digit rises will continue for the next three years, potentially pushing the national figure close to 10% of all school‑age children by 2029.

This accelerated growth threatens to exceed the government’s own projections, diverting funds that were earmarked for enhancing specialist provision in mainstream settings. The surge risks jeopardising imminent reform initiatives and placing additional pressure on school and council finances.

Headteacher associations report that special educational needs (SEND) coordinators have been working through the summer holidays to cope with the wave of assessment requests, while secondary schools note a notable rise in Year 7 pupils already holding EHCPs or awaiting evaluation.

One leader characterised the volume of applications as “unreal”, and several schools anticipate that the intake of pupils with EHCPs will double when the new term starts this month.

“I’ve spoken to parents across the country, and many families and children have felt let down by the current system,” said Gould. “Their concerns are understandable, and any reform can feel unsettling for those families.”

“That is why we are committed to delivering tangible changes that families can see and feel in classrooms and communities,” she continued. “We will construct a new, inclusive system before introducing broader reforms.”

“We are determined to ensure that support is in place so parents do not have to battle for it, that assistance is readily available at their child’s school, and that no pupil is left without help,” she added.

Gould recognised that “building trust and working closely with families will take time before they see the benefits on a day‑to‑day basis. The ongoing investment, teacher training and sharing of best practice are all crucial to the reform.”

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the National Association of Head Teachers, said the data aligns with “what we hear from school leaders on the ground.”

Whiteman noted that “while a clear cause is difficult to pinpoint, the prospect of tighter future eligibility for EHCPs—limited to children with the most complex needs—may be prompting families and schools to apply now, before the reforms take effect.”

Ipsea, a charity that supports families through the special‑educational‑needs system, reports a surge in helpline inquiries about EHCP provision since March, following the announcement of the proposed reforms.

Madeleine Cassidy, Ipsea’s chief executive, warned that “the government’s proposed SEND reforms could exacerbate an already fragile system by dismantling statutory protections and safeguards that protect children and families when support is delayed, denied or insufficient.”

In response to the surge, several local authorities have revised their projections sharply. Hampshire Council’s July report noted record‑high applications for the year and projected a 58% rise in EHCP numbers between 2026 and 2030, while Manchester Council expects a 40% increase in school‑age pupils with EHCPs by 2029.

William Burns, a social‑care policy adviser at the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, said an upcoming survey of local authority treasurers is likely to confirm that the renewed demand for EHCPs is imposing fresh financial strain.

Burns commented that “the government’s modelling predicts demand could revert to current levels by 2035, but the present volume is already stretching the system to its limits. It is therefore questionable whether replicating today’s need, even under a reformed system, can be regarded as a sustainable outcome.”

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