Erdogan Signals Expanded Nuclear Ties with Russia, Raising Western Concerns

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is signaling an expansion of nuclear power cooperation with Russia, just as his country’s first Russian-built nuclear station prepares to become operational later this year. This deepening partnership is likely to unsettle Turkey’s Western allies.

On the sidelines of a recent gathering of regional leaders in Kyrgyzstan, Erdogan told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that the two nations “will take steps together to open new power plants, alongside the launch of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant”.

The Akkuyu nuclear power plant, constructed by Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast, is scheduled to go online later this year.

Erdogan’s announcement comes despite strained ties with Russia, as the Turkish leader has simultaneously deepened relations with US President Donald Trump.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the Ankara office at the US think tank the German Marshall Fund, describes Erdogan’s move as a “gesture” toward Putin.

“Although Turkey competes with Russia geopolitically and is firmly anchored in NATO while improving relations with the United States, it does not intend to sever all ties with Russia,” Unluhisarcikli explained.

“Indeed, Turkey views the Turkey-Russia relationship as a long-term strategic one, consistent with its broader balancing act.”

A Nuclear Lifeline

For Ankara, nuclear energy promises to help break free from heavy reliance on imported power. Once operational, the Akkuyu plant in southern Turkey will supply up to 10 percent of the country’s electricity.

Rosatom owns the Akkuyu power plant and will recoup the estimated €21.5 billion construction costs by selling electricity to Turkey, generating annual income of around €2 to €3 billion.

Such income could be a vital tool for Moscow to mitigate tightening sanctions from both the European Union and the United States.

“The Akkuyu nuclear power plant allows Russia to establish state-to-state payment channels to store liquidity in Turkish banks without necessarily interfering with sanctions regulations,” according to George Voloshin of Acams, a global organization dedicated to anti-financial crime, training, and education.

Voloshin believes that, given the project’s 60- to 80-year lifespan, Turkey’s commitment to Russian nuclear power will shape bilateral ties for the long term, with significant consequences.

“It will be a source of scrutiny from Turkey’s Western partners. At the same time, nuclear energy has so far been shielded from any sanctions, so for Russia it is clearly a kind of lifeline,” he said.

Mutual Dependency

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ankara has maintained that it is not bound by EU or US sanctions on Moscow. Yet behind the scenes, it has quietly followed many restrictions and secured crucial waivers, particularly for Russian gas.

By leveraging its pivotal location near Syria and Iran, Ankara has walked a diplomatic tightrope between its Western partners and Moscow.

However, deepening nuclear cooperation with Russia threatens to complicate this already difficult balancing act.

“It would reinforce the already existing distrust between Turkey and Europe, as well as between Turkey and the United States,” warned Unluhisarcikli.

“But at the same time, Turkey is in talks with other countries, including the United States and South Korea, which are Russia’s main competitors,” he noted.

Turkey’s dependence on Russian fossil fuels has stirred unease at home, and the idea of doubling down on Russian nuclear energy only heightens this anxiety. “It is a dilemma,” Unluhisarcikli conceded.

Yet with Russia willing to shoulder the hefty construction costs, cash-strapped Ankara has a strong incentive to maintain the partnership.

Russia expert Zaur Gasimov of Istanbul’s Turkish-German University points out that over a decade of joint investment makes it tough for Turkey to turn to alternative suppliers.

“It’s quite a profound project,” said Gasimov. “Russia conducts the training of Turkish specialists in nuclear energy, which began 15 years ago. We now have three or four waves of Turkish engineers who stayed for longer periods in Russia; they learn the Russian language for two years, and an infrastructure of specialists has been established.”

However, Gasimov stresses that given the scale of investment by both sides, it has created an important mutual dependency. “Its importance makes both sides, somehow, ultimately interested in preserving a certain level of the relationship,” he said.

This shared reliance might help keep Turkish-Russian rivalries in check, from North Africa to the Middle East, the Caucasus, and the Black Sea.

Yet any step toward deeper nuclear cooperation is bound to invite sharper scrutiny and rising suspicion from Ankara’s Western allies.

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