Ethiopia and Eritrea Exchange Accusations at UN as Fears of Regional Conflict Grow

Ethiopia and Eritrea have exchanged serious accusations of aggression at the United Nations, raising concerns about a potential resurgence of conflict in the Horn of Africa. The diplomatic tension comes as fighting intensifies in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, with allegations that Eritrean forces have crossed the border to support rebel groups opposing the Ethiopian government.

The two neighbors, which fought a devastating border war between 1998 and 2000, were close allies during the 2020–2022 Tigray conflict. However, relations have deteriorated significantly since the 2022 peace agreement, driven by disputes over the deal’s implementation and Ethiopia’s persistent demands for access to the Red Sea.

So, what specific accusations have been leveled by both sides, and how close are they to a full-scale military confrontation?

What did Eritrea and Ethiopia say at the UN?

Ethiopia informed the UN Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometers (37 miles) into Tigray, accusing Asmara of violating its sovereignty. In a letter to the council, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos described the alleged incursion as “a blatant act of aggression” that triggered Ethiopia’s inherent right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter, though he did not detail the specific measures being taken.

In response, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh sent his own letter to the UN Security Council, urging the international body to condemn Ethiopia’s “deplorable declaration of war” and implement “deterrent measures.” Saleh warned that an Ethiopian offensive would cause “huge devastation to the peoples of both countries and destabilise the whole region.”

The escalating accusations are occurring against the backdrop of a broader dispute over Red Sea access. Landlocked Ethiopia has consistently argued that securing direct maritime access is vital for its economic future, while Eritrea fears that Addis Ababa intends to seize its strategic port of Assab. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed reiterated this week that Ethiopia must have access to the Red Sea.

Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute (BISI), noted that both narratives contain “verifiable elements” but warned that “the danger lies in the fact that each side now treats the other’s narrative as existential.”

Professor Matthias Rompel from the Institute of Sociology at the Justus-Liebig-University Giessen in Germany stated that while both sides have legitimate security concerns, their accusations must be distinguished from independently verified facts. He noted that allegations of Eritrean military incursions and Asmara’s direction of the rebellion against Addis Ababa remain difficult to substantiate independently. He added that the confrontation is no longer limited to Tigray, linking Ethiopia’s quest for Red Sea access, Eritrea’s sovereignty concerns, and Egypt’s strategic rivalry over the Nile. “The conflict, therefore, has the potential to destabilise the wider Horn of Africa, with repercussions for Sudan, Somalia and Red Sea security,” he warned.

What is the latest fighting about, and how is Eritrea allegedly involved?

Fighting escalated on September 23 when a rebel alliance, which includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), launched coordinated attacks against Ethiopian government forces across the Tigray, Amhara, and Afar regions. The rebels briefly captured Tigray’s capital, Mekelle, and its airport, before announcing their withdrawal on October 3, after which government-allied forces entered the city.

On the battlefront, government and allied forces took control of Idaga Hamus early on Friday and Abiy-Adi in the Tembien area on Thursday afternoon, according to Ermiyas Ababu, a commander of the government-allied Tigray Peace Force. Residents confirmed the takeovers, though it remains unclear who held the towns immediately prior to the government advance or whether Eritrean troops were directly involved in these specific movements.

Ermiyas previously reported that Eritrean personnel entered Adigrat on Tuesday and Idaga Hamus on Wednesday, citing reports from his subordinates, though Al Jazeera has been unable to independently verify these claims. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), a US-based conflict monitor, reported that Eritrean troops crossed into Ethiopia near Zalambessa and came under an Ethiopian drone attack while advancing toward Idaga Hamus. Eritrea has not yet commented on these reports.

Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of financing, arming, and directing armed groups, as well as deploying troops inside Tigray. Eritrea denies these allegations, which have not been independently verified. The renewed fighting threatens to unravel the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement, which ended major hostilities between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF but did not include Eritrea as a signatory.

Has Ethiopia sent troops north towards Eritrea?

Multiple media reports indicate that Ethiopian government troops and allied militias entered Adigrat, a strategic city situated roughly 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the Eritrean border, on Saturday. Three residents confirmed their presence to Reuters, and verified footage showed government-allied militia members walking through the city. Associated Press footage also depicted Ethiopian military vehicles entering Adigrat as some residents welcomed the troops. Government-allied forces have reported capturing Idaga Hamus and Abiy-Adi, while explosions and alleged drone strikes have been reported near Adigrat.

Are Ethiopia and Eritrea inching towards war?

Analysts warn that Ethiopia and Eritrea may have already moved beyond rhetorical threats into a dangerous phase of direct military confrontation. BISI’s Ibrahim stated that the situation has entered a “high-risk phase of limited but direct military confrontation with a real possibility of rapid escalation into interstate war.” He warned that the severing of diplomatic ties has removed the last formal mechanism for crisis management, while Ethiopian military advances toward the Eritrean border increase the risk of miscalculation.

Tom Gardner, a correspondent for The Economist, noted that the current tensions must be understood within the context of decades of hostility between the neighbors. Their brief alliance during the 2020–2022 Tigray war was an exception driven by a shared hostility toward the TPLF. Gardner added that the Ethiopian government’s primary strategic goal is Red Sea access, alongside removing Eritrea’s government from the picture, describing the current situation as “the most dangerous moment for the region since the 1998 to 2000 war.”

Rompel from the Justus-Liebig-University Giessen observed that the situation is rapidly evolving. “The danger of a wider interstate conflict is real, and the situation has already moved beyond a purely diplomatic confrontation,” he said. He cautioned that the central danger is not necessarily that either government has decided to launch a full-scale war, but that military miscalculations, mutual distrust, and domestic political pressures could trigger an escalation neither side can easily control. “A wider conflict is not inevitable, but the space for diplomatic de-escalation is rapidly narrowing,” he concluded.

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