The EUR/CHF pair resumed its upward trajectory from the 0.8979 level last week, reaching a peak at 0.9434 before experiencing a retreat. Looking ahead, the initial bias for the current week remains neutral, paving the way for potential consolidation. As long as the key support level at 0.9304 holds, further upward movement is anticipated. A decisive break above 0.9434 will open the path toward the 161.8% Fibonacci projection level of 0.9555, measured from the 0.8979 to 0.9264 range starting at 0.9094.
On a broader scale, a decisive break above the 0.9394 resistance level would confirm that the rise originating from the medium-term bottom at 0.8979 is at least correcting the decline from the 2024 high of 0.9928. This upward momentum has the potential to develop into a sustained medium-term uptrend. Consequently, the next significant resistance level to watch is 0.9660. This bullish outlook will remain the preferred scenario as long as the former resistance at 0.9264 continues to act as a support level.
From a long-term perspective, market attention will continue to focus on the 0.9407 level, which previously served as a key support and has now transitioned into resistance, marking the 2022 low. A sustained break above this level would strongly suggest that the long-term downward trend originating from the 2018 high of 1.2004 has concluded, completing a five-wave decline that bottomed at 0.8979. Following such a breakthrough, a more robust rebound is expected, potentially targeting the 38.2% retracement level of the 1.2004 to 0.8979 range at 1.0135 over the medium term.
