The short-term trajectory for EUR/GBP remains neutral, maintaining the current market outlook. Price action continues to face significant resistance at the 0.8610 level, which is expected to cap the ongoing corrective recovery from the 0.8453 low. A breakdown below the 0.8545 support would shift the bias bearish again, targeting a retest of the 0.8453 low. Conversely, a sustained move above 0.8610 would negate the bearish thesis and fuel a stronger advance toward the 0.8728 resistance.
From a broader perspective, the rally originating from the 2024 low of 0.8221 is likely concluded at 0.8863, falling just short of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.9267 to 0.8221 decline, which sits at 0.8867. A further downward move is anticipated to target 0.8221. For the time being, the overarching outlook remains at best neutral, provided the 0.8610 level—now acting as resistance—continues to hold. However, a sustained break above this threshold would suggest that the decline from 0.8863 was merely a corrective pullback rather than a full trend reversal.
