Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel on Wednesday and remained steady on Thursday morning following renewed attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The benchmark has stayed above $70 since mid‑February, a period of nearly seven months, and is now 65.7% higher than the $60.85 closing price at the end of 2025.
But this is no longer simply an energy market story.
Higher crude prices feed directly into the cost of diesel, petrol and jet fuel, whose price rises ripple through transport networks, supply chains and ultimately affect consumer prices.
For Europe, the timing could hardly be worse.
Eurozone inflation already stood at 3.3% in August – its highest level since September 2023 – while energy prices were 14.3% up year‑on‑year.
That is why the European Central Bank is expected to lift its deposit rate by a quarter‑point to 2.50% on Thursday. In the United States, futures markets give about a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve hike on 16 September.
Europe’s Near‑Total Dependence on Foreign Oil
Europe’s near‑total reliance on imported oil leaves the bloc fundamentally exposed to global supply shocks.
The European Union imported 471.3 million tonnes of crude oil in 2024, while domestic production amounted to just 15.5 million tonnes.
Overall import dependence reached 96.6%, according to Eurostat – meaning almost every barrel consumed must be sourced abroad.
The top suppliers were the United States, Kazakhstan and Norway, each accounting for roughly 12‑15% of imports. Libya followed with over 9%, Saudi Arabia at 6.8% and Nigeria and Iraq each at 5.8%.
Only about 7% of EU crude imports came from Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2025, indicating that Europe is less directly tied to Gulf producers than many Asian economies. Nonetheless, oil trades on a global market, so a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz pushes up prices for US, Norwegian and Middle‑Eastern grades alike.
Which European Countries Import the Largest Volumes?
When it comes to raw import volumes, the Netherlands leads by a wide margin.
Eurostat data for 2024 show imports of 138.3 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products, far more than any other European nation. Germany follows with 117.8 million tonnes, Spain with 85.8 million, France with 82.4 million, Italy with 73.3 million and Belgium with 56.7 million.
Much of the Dutch intake is processed in Rotterdam – one of the world’s biggest energy hubs – and then re‑exported. The Netherlands shipped 101.1 million tonnes of the 138.3 million it imported, while Belgium re‑exported more than half of its own intake. Germany, with its large industrial base, transport network and refining sector, is the bloc’s biggest net importer. Spain, France and Italy also import substantial quantities to meet domestic demand and feed major refineries.
Eurostat’s consumption figures reveal that Germany accounted for 20.1% of the EU’s final oil and petroleum product consumption in 2024, France for 15.3%, and Italy and Spain each for 11.1%. Together these four economies consumed almost 58% of the total EU volume.
Smaller Economies May Suffer the Larger Relative Shock
Raw volumes show who buys most, but vulnerability is better measured against the size of the domestic economy.
Eurostat tracks the energy trade balance as a share of GDP. Malta posted the bloc’s biggest deficit in 2025 – 5.4% of its GDP. Bulgaria recorded 3.5%, Croatia 3.4%, Hungary 2.9%, Belgium 2.6%, Luxembourg 2.5% and Cyprus 2.4%.
The large economies sit nearer the middle. Italy’s energy deficit equalled 1.9% of GDP, while Spain and Poland each recorded 1.7%. Germany and France both posted deficits of 1.5%.
The smallest deficits were seen in Denmark (0.1% of GDP), Sweden (0.5%) and the Netherlands (0.6%). Denmark benefits from its own oil and gas production, and the Netherlands’ modest deficit reflects its role as a refining and re‑export hub.
Tourism‑Dependent Countries Are Also Heavily Hit
Tourism‑focused nations feel the impact more acutely because transport, aviation and hospitality rely heavily on imported oil.
Spain’s oil import dependency – the share of consumption covered by net imports – reached 100.3% in 2024. Portugal’s was 99.9% and Ireland’s 101%.
Maltá imported 99.6% of its oil needs in 2024 and Cyprus 97.3%.
Their exposure is amplified by the importance of transport, aviation and tourism. Almost two‑thirds of EU oil consumption is used for transportation. Road transport alone accounted for 47.7% of total consumption in 2024, aviation for 9.2% and maritime shipping for 8.4%.
This mix matters for southern Europe. Rising jet‑fuel costs squeeze airlines serving Spain, Portugal, Greece, Cyprus and Malta, while higher diesel prices push up expenses for hotels, restaurants and retailers through more expensive supply chains.
Tourism operators may initially absorb part of the increase, but if crude stays above $100, higher costs are likely to be passed on to consumers via airfares and accommodation.
Denmark is the least dependent, at 58.1%, followed by Romania (77%) and Hungary (83.5%). Italy sits at 89.8%, Germany at 96.9% and France at 99.8%.
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